of snow days
throughout the entire study period, while trends in max snow depth go from mostly positive in
period I to mostly negative in period II, and both negative and positive in period III. Positive
trends in annual maximum snow depth occur mostly in colder regions, where precipitation
comes as snow at the height of winter. Number of snow days has decreased in both warm and
cold regions
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
of
scenario work
o What are the requirements to research results?
o Can stakeholders and policy makers cope with uncertainty? How?
o Describe the most important assumptions to achieve a fruitful social learning process.
9. Connecting to Policy
o Where is the stakeholder process situated in the formal policy making process?
o How are you to guarantee that the results of the stakeholder process
/media/loftslag/Horsens_breakout_12August.pdf
such as meteorology, hydrology, human sciences as well as finance (e.g.
Embrechts et al., 1997; Watts et al., 2007). Basic concepts will be presented here through two
methods for finding the return levels: the Block Maxima approach and the Peak-over-Threshold
approach. The theory presented in this chapter is far from exhaustive and it is derived from Coles
(2001), where extensive details can be found
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
3
0
5
0
7
0
2070–99
(f)
0
20
0
60
0
100
0
2010–39(g)
0
20
0
60
0
100
0
2040–69(h)
Lake Saimaa
0
20
0
60
0
100
0
2070–99(i)
Outflo
w(m
3
s
)
Outflo
w(m
3
s
)
Outflo
w(m
3
s
)
Month
Fig. 5 Average daily outflow (m3/s) from Lake Pielinen (a–c), Lake Syväri (d–f) and Lake Saimaa
(g–i) in the reference period (blue) and in 2010–2039 (left), 2040–2069 (middle) and 2070–2099 (right).
The results
/media/ces/Water_resources_man_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
signs of unrest. The first effort of additional monitoring should be focused
on volcanoes that currently show some activity, such as Bárðabunga, Askja and Krafla.
Increased density of stations in well-known zones of rift events, such as Eastern Volcanic
zone, Krafla and Askja, should be considered as the behaviour of the crust around the plate
boundary can give indications on where in the rifting
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2011/2011_005.pdf
which if it occurs
might impact on the ability of an organization to achieve its
objectives (Hillson, 2007)
square4 Risk can also be seen as an opportunity that might be lost if the
essential information is not available
square4 Thus risk can be either negative or positive
502/07/2010
Risk assessment framework
Adopted from: IEC 60300-3-9 2000 Risk analysis of technological systems
3. Risk
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
equal to
372, and the greatest skill on Brúarjökull (ρ= 0.83; 0.0002) where the RMS er-
ror is equal to 171. The correlation for Dyngjujökull is 0.61 with a significance
value of 0.06 and the RMS error is equal to 286. The simulated precipitation is
within estimated observational error-margins for 10 out of 12 winters for Dyn-
gjujökull, 13 out of 14 for Brúarjökull and 5 out of 10 for Langjökull ice
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_91.pdf
for dealing with change.
These considerations highlight that one important ele-
ment of adaptive water management is the governance
structure. Adaptive governance can be understood as the
synthesis of collaborative management and adaptive man-
agement (Wailand 2006). It can be defined as the totality of
5 For historical developments and institutional settings of the specific
case-studies more information
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
- this is different from “No Information” which indicates that nothing at all is known
about the area.
5) No specific colour is assigned to areas of “No Information”; such areas should be clearly
indicated on ice charts - text annotation may be used where appropriate; an assigned
colour within the code should not be used to indicate “No Information”.
6) Colour codes do not preclude use of black
/media/hafis/frodleikur/ice-chart_colour-code-standard.pdf
in
climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they
interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by
gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change
DOI 10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6
J. C. Refsgaard (*)
Geological Survey of Denmark
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf