Arason T., Geirsson H., Karlsdóttir S., Hjaltadóttir S., Ólafsdóttir U., Thorbjarnardóttir B., Skaftadóttir T., Sturkell E., Jónasdóttir E.B., Hafsteinsson G., Sveinbjörnsson H., Stefánsson R., and Jónsson T.V., 2005, Forecasting and Monitoring a Subglacial Eruption in Iceland, Eos, Vol. 86, No. 26, p. 245-252, 28 June 2005.
Location
Location of the weather radar at Keflavik airport
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2072
was originally suggested by Páll Bergþórsson, former director of IMO, and Bo R. Döös in 1955. In addition to the analysis, the model also needs prediction of the development of weather at the boundaries of the domain, retrieved from a coarser resolution global NWP simulation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
HARMONIE is developed for horizontal resolution ranging from
/weather/articles/nr/3232
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
g
e
o
s
t
r
o
p
h
i
c
w
i
n
d
s
p
e
e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
2015, 2025, 2035 and 2050
North (Blanda) East (Karahnjukar) South (Thorisvatn)
Change in average inflow to the main storage reservoirs
Watershed
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
i
n
f
l
o
w
[
m
3
/
s
]
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
Last 50 years
Last 20 years
Last 15 years
Last 10 years
Last 5 years
Temperature corrected
Transformation of climate measurements
•Change in temperature
• 0.75 °C/100y 1950-1975
• 1.55
/media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
) measures. The main purpose
ARTICLE IN PRESS
of this study is to test a model of the relations between
factors expected to influence the acceptability of TDM
measures. In addition, comparisons between car users’
0272-4944/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2006.05.003
Corresponding author. Department of Psychology, Umea˚ University,
Sweden. Tel.: +46 90/media/loftslag/Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006.pdf
ct of this te
vember to M
the lower
perature b
th small ar
mall. The
perature fo
r Apr May
2 -1.6 1.8
8 -1.6 1.8
0.0 0.0
ean yearl
of manual o
in blue.
nce the MM
able 3.
ity of the
ut when co
s observed
he winter m
r the lowes
mperature
arch whe
part of the
ias in the M
ea reaching
effects on r
17
r Sandá í Þ
Jun Jul
5.8 8
5.4 7.4
0.4 0.6
y temperat
bservation
5 tempera
MM5 temp
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf