witnessed severe flood in 2006, when
sea level rose to 1.76 m above normal. The extreme rainfall events will bring pressures to the local
drainage system as well.
This project is aiming to build scenarios for adaptive flood management in the coming 20 years for
Horsens Fjord, based IPCC emission scenario A2. The climate situation is shown in Table 1. Two
adaptive water management (AWM
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
M A M J J A l
ll l
l
l
l
l
l
l
lll
l
l
lll
0 100 200 300
60
0
80
0
100
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm102
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
30
40
50
60
70
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm116
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
20
0
30
0
40
0
50
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
c
e
m
a
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e
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n
t
6
5
8
P
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7 78 Anja Wejs Denmark
Environmental
management
8 93 Tommy Chan Finland Forest sciences
9 140 Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Finland
E viro me tal
economics
10 147 Jussi Ylhäisi Finland Meteorology
11 (new) Karen Lundgren Sweden
Engineering &
Design
12 (new) Väinö Nurmi Finland Economics
13
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
- gróðurhúsaáhrif. Lifandi vísindi, pp. 52-54.
Snorrason, Á. (2002). Veður, vatn og orka. Presented at the Ársfundur Orkustofnunar 2003, Reykjavík, Mar 20. 31-39. [Extended abstract]
Snorrason, Á. (2002). Veðurfar, vatn og orka. Presentation, Aðalfundur Jöklarannsóknafélags Íslands. Norræna húsið, Reykjavík, Iceland. Feb 26. [Presentation]
Snorrason, Á. (2004). The International Hydrological
/climatology/research/ce/publications/
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Oddur Sigurðsson, Óðinn Þórarinsson, Philippe Crochet, Tómas Jóhannesson & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2012). Floods in Iceland. In: Z. W. Kundzewicz (ed), Changes in Flood Risk in Europe. Oxfordshire: IAHS Special Publication 10, 257-276.
Hálfdán Ágústsson & Haraldur Ólafsson (2012). The bimodal downslope windstorms at Kvisker. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 116(1-2), 27-42, doi:10.1007/s00703
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/
• Analyse future snow scenarios
Introduction Data & Methods Results
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0-100 100-
200
200-
300
300-
400
400-
500
500-
600
600-
700
700-
800
800-
900
900-
1000
1000-
1100
1100-
1200
1200-
1300
1300-
1400
1400-
1500
1500-
1600
1600-
1700
1700-
1800
1800-
1900
1900-
2000
2000-
2100
2100-
2200
Høyde (m o.h.)
A
n
t
a
l
l
v
æ
r
s
t
a
s
j
o
n
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r
Elevation of met.no
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
2015, 2025, 2035 and 2050
North (Blanda) East (Karahnjukar) South (Thorisvatn)
Change in average inflow to the main storage reservoirs
Watershed
A
v
e
r
a
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n
f
l
o
w
[
m
3
/
s
]
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
Last 50 years
Last 20 years
Last 15 years
Last 10 years
Last 5 years
Temperature corrected
Transformation of climate measurements
•Change in temperature
• 0.75 °C/100y 1950-1975
• 1.55
/media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
vuosille 2010–2040; Trafi 3/2010
Shares of elderly drivers without accidents and/or fines (in the previous year)
by age category, and comparison with very young drivers
Source: Mikkonen, V. (2010), Seniorikuljettajien seurantaindeksi, Trafi 5/2010
Aggregate risk of motor vehicle collision (per million vehicle km) in Finland (“dry”
road vs. icy/snowy road surface) (2003-2006).
(a) Based
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf