the no-access area around the eruption site by the Icelandic Civil Protection throughout the eruption.
Preliminary maps were produced considering a short meteorological data set (one month); and were only done for 50% and 90% likelihood of occurrence.
A more proper data set of runs was done using 10 years of meteorological data from the ECMWF and probabilistic hazard maps accounting
/pollution-and-radiation/volcanic-gas/hazard-zoning/
the no-access area around the eruption site by the Icelandic Civil Protection throughout the eruption.
Preliminary maps were produced considering a short meteorological data set (one month); and were only done for 50% and 90% likelihood of occurrence.
A more proper data set of runs was done using 10 years of meteorological data from the ECMWF and probabilistic hazard maps accounting
/pollution-and-radiation/volcanic-gas/hazard-zoning
) with peaks up to 1300 kg/s (~112 kT/d). Assuming a constant release of gas until today, the eruption has injected into the atmosphere an amount of SO2 in the range 3.5 Mt (considering the average flux) – 11.2 Mt (considering the peak).
These numbers could be compared with the largest gas-rich eruption which occurred in Iceland in 1783-1784 (Laki eruption, Skaftáreldar, Móðuharðindin) and lasted 8
/pollution-and-radiation/volcanic-gas/measurements/
) with peaks up to 1300 kg/s (~112 kT/d). Assuming a constant release of gas until today, the eruption has injected into the atmosphere an amount of SO2 in the range 3.5 Mt (considering the average flux) – 11.2 Mt (considering the peak).
These numbers could be compared with the largest gas-rich eruption which occurred in Iceland in 1783-1784 (Laki eruption, Skaftáreldar, Móðuharðindin) and lasted 8
/pollution-and-radiation/volcanic-gas/measurements
) with peaks up to 1300 kg/s (~112 kT/d). Assuming a constant release of gas until today, the eruption has injected into the atmosphere an amount of SO2 in the range 3.5 Mt (considering the average flux) – 11.2 Mt (considering the peak).
These numbers could be compared with the largest gas-rich eruption which occurred in Iceland in 1783-1784 (Laki eruption, Skaftáreldar, Móðuharðindin) and lasted 8
/pollution-and-radiation/volcanic-gas/measurements/nr/3036
that observed during
the first dike intrusion in february-march 2021. There are indications that the
deformation and seismicity is declining and this was precursory to the eruption
which started on 19th March 2021. Considering all of the above, the likelihood
of an eruption at Fagradalsfjall within the coming days is considered to be substantial.
Sentinel-1 interferogram spanning 20 July to 1
/about-imo/news/status-of-unrest-in-reykjanes
returned back to green. Ground deformation indicates that magma continues to accumulate at depth since August 2021 and a total uplift of 40 cm is currently measured in the inner part of the caldera. This deformation is however not accompanied by elevated seismicity which continues to be within the known background level. This return to green is taken considering the need of the ACC to communicate
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanoes/vona-notifications/