to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
-2049. Projections are based on simulations performed
with 18 global climate models under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gas scenar-
ios.
To facilitate reading the report, only the most essential diagrams and maps are included
in the main text, additional material being positioned in the appendix.
1 MODELLED SOLAR RADIATION DATA
The quantity examined is incident solar radiation (also termed
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_solar_CMIP3.pdf
Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
erations
which will be
done to protect
against th e
phenome na a nd
its
conse quenc es
The
consequenc es
of the
phenom ena to
the distribution
network
T he
con seque nc
es of the
phe nom ena
to the
pow er
plant
The conse quence s
of the phe nomena
to e nerg y sourc e
and its usability
Probability
according
to IP CC
2007
Phe nom ena acco rding
to regional scena rio
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
provide tables and figures incor-
porating numerical data often generated by sophisticated
models. Finally, scenarios can be surprise-free or trend scenar-
ios, that extend foreseen developments, on the one hand or in-
clude surprises and exploring the extremes (e.g. best case/
worst case) on the other hand.
Scenarios can ensure that assumptions about future devel-
opments are made transparent
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
-out group, assuming the initiative is at the public
side.
Red: inside transport system; blue: direct impact on size & quality of demand for road vehicle
movements; grey: auxiliary services that strongly interact with effects of CC.
Various possible effects of climate change on road infrastructure and its users
The expected effects of a changing climate in Nordic countries imply among others
/media/vedurstofan/NONAM_1st_workshop_summary_v3.pdf