to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
5
Days since 1st sep.
n
o
rm
al
ise
d
Q,
W
S,
SW
E Q
WS
SWE
vhm148
S O N D J F M A M J J A
0 100 200 300
0
1
2
3
4
5
Days since 1st sep.
n
o
rm
al
ise
d
Q,
W
S,
SW
E Q
WS
SWE
vhm149
S O N D J F M A M J J A
0 100 200 300
0
1
2
3
4
5
Days since 1st sep.
n
o
rm
al
ise
d
Q,
W
S,
SW
E Q
WS
SWE
vhm205
S O N D J F M A M J J A
0 100 200 300
0
1
2
3
4
5
Days since 1st sep.
n
o
rm
al
ise
d
Q,
W
S
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
erations
which will be
done to protect
against th e
phenome na a nd
its
conse quenc es
The
consequenc es
of the
phenom ena to
the distribution
network
T he
con seque nc
es of the
phe nom ena
to the
pow er
plant
The conse quence s
of the phe nomena
to e nerg y sourc e
and its usability
Probability
according
to IP CC
2007
Phe nom ena acco rding
to regional scena rio
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
on drivers, models, indicators, and qualitative
scenarios. Around 15–20 SCENES experts were present in any of the scenario workshops. Thus, all workshops had around 30
participants out of which half were stakeholders and half were SCENES experts. The rst workshop (WS0) was a short
introductory meeting that was not facilitated. The subsequent three meetings (WS 1–3) were scenario development
/media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf
-out group, assuming the initiative is at the public
side.
Red: inside transport system; blue: direct impact on size & quality of demand for road vehicle
movements; grey: auxiliary services that strongly interact with effects of CC.
Various possible effects of climate change on road infrastructure and its users
The expected effects of a changing climate in Nordic countries imply among others
/media/vedurstofan/NONAM_1st_workshop_summary_v3.pdf