An analysis of simulated and observed storm
characteristics
- Can we expect a change in the future?
R.E. Benestad, CES, June 01 2010
Number of cyclones:
RCM
analysis
CCI
(Benestad & Chen, 2006) righttoleftmark
No change in storm frequency?
RCM:
N corresponds
|v| too high
...or simulated wind speeds?
•CCI
•triangulation
Method: storm characteristics
RCM: storms too small
too strong.
Gradient
/media/ces/Benestad_Rasmus_CES_2010.pdf
2015, 2025, 2035 and 2050
North (Blanda) East (Karahnjukar) South (Thorisvatn)
Change in average inflow to the main storage reservoirs
Watershed
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
i
n
f
l
o
w
[
m
3
/
s
]
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
Last 50 years
Last 20 years
Last 15 years
Last 10 years
Last 5 years
Temperature corrected
Transformation of climate measurements
•Change in temperature
• 0.75 °C/100y 1950-1975
• 1.55
/media/ces/Linnet_Ulfar_CES_2010.pdf
by
rescaling a dimensionless regional flood frequency distribution or growth curve, qR(D;T ), com-
mon to all sites of the homogeneous region, with the so-called index flood, µi(D), of the target
site:
bQi(D;T ) = µi(D)qR(D;T ); (1)
where bQi(D;T ) is the estimated flood quantile, i.e. the T -year flood peak discharge averaged
over duration D, at site i. The regional growth curve, qR(D;T
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
Dashed lines encompass the V-shaped zone of tephra deposition. (c)
Oblique aerial view from west of the tephra plume at Grímsvötn on 2 November. Note the ashfall
from the plume. (Photo by M. J. Roberts.) (d) Weather radar image at 0400 UTC on 2 November.
The top portion shows its projection on an EW-vertical plane. The minimum detection height for
Grímsvötn is seen at 6 km, and the plume extends
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf