NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE ICELANDIC POLICE
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
THE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD OF THE ICELANDIC CIVIL PROTECTION
Date: 03.03.2015 Time: 09:30 Location: Crisis Coordination Centre, Skogarhlid.
Regarding: Volcanic activity in the Bardarbunga system.
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences
/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20150303-b.pdf
Surface Air Temperature and
Precipitation Trends for Iceland
in the 21st Century
Nikolai Nawri
Halldór Björnsson
VÍ 2010-005
Skýrsla
Surface Air Temperature and
Precipitation Trends for Iceland
in the 21st Century
VÍ 2010-005
ISSN 1670-8261
Skýrsla
+354 522 60 00
+354 522 60 06
vedur@vedur.is
Veðurstofa Íslands
Bústaðavegur 9
150 Reykjavík
Nikolai Nawri, Icelandic Meteorological Office
Halldór
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
is not addressed in the
CES/ENSEMBLES RCM-GCM matrix
• Observations
Simulated
• Rubel and Hantel (2001)
ECHAM5
Problems with global climate models
Details in precipitation are not captured: example winter (DJF)
0
3060
90
120
150
180
210
240
mm/month
Downscaling methods:
Improving global climate
scenarios
Global Regional
Regional climate models (RCMs)
head2right Increased resolution
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
about 20-25% in 2010 to about 50% in 2050. Perhaps surprisingly,
a particularly high probability is found in Iceland, most likely as a result of the small
12
interannual variability there. As expected, the probability of very warn years rises even faster
than that of warm months – in northern Europe from typically 30-40% in 2010 to about 60-
80% in 2030 and to 85-95% or even more in 2050
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
to 10 kilometers.
Heading: Most of the ash cloud heads to the south. Lower and scattered clouds
head southwest and travel over the eastern part of the South Iceland
Lowlands. The plume forms a 60 km long circular cloud around the
eruption site with its lower boundary at a height of about 5 km. Out
from this cloud, a scattered cloud lies to the north reaching about 450
km north
/media/jar/Grimsvotn_status_2011-05-22_IES_IMO.pdf
scenario Summer Winter
Temp ▲6˚c ▲7˚c.
Precip. +10% +30%
CO N l d bl2 ear y ou e
11
Forest management principles
1
)
Basal area just
before thinning
Thinning threshold
Energy
wood
Energy
biomass
a
r
e
a
(
m
2
h
a
-
1 thinningt i g
B
a
s
a
l
a
Basal area just
Remaining basal
area threshold
Dominant height (m)
after thinning
12
Management regimes
Changes in basal area thinning thresholds
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
6University of Washington,
Seattle, WA 98195, USA. 7NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: cmilly@usgs.gov.
An uncertain future challenges water planners.
Published by AAAS
on July 12, 201
1
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1 FEBRUARY 2008 VOL 319 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org574
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/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf