pm
en
t.
Co
ntex
t(natura
l,techni
ca
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
tra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
iss
ue
s
w
ith
man
y
di
ffe
ren
tspa
tia
lsc
ales
.
So
ci
o
ec
o
n
o
m
ic
an
d
cl
im
at
e
chang
e
ar
e
imp
ortan
t
1:Ont
ologica
l2:Sce
nari
o
O
fte
n
domina
nt
D
ominant
:Compl
ex
Int
egrate
d
Sy
ste
m
A
na
ly
sis
(C
ISA
):
in
te
gr
at
ed
m
o
de
lli
ng
an
d
as
se
ss
m
en
tf
or
ex
am
in
at
io
n
o
f
co
m
pl
ex
re
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
probably a few meters.
An interactive 3D model of the earthquakes during the magma
intrusion. The di?rent colours represent the activity in time from
16 August to 12 September.
During the magma intrusion, intense earthquake activity related to
subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera was located at the caldera
rim. Over 70 earthquakes above magnitude 5 occurred in the first
four months after the onset
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/IMO_AnnualReport2014.pdf
scenario, precipitation increased by 10–15% from 1961–90 to
2070–99, and by 5–10% for the lower emitting scenarios (corresponding to approximately 0.5–1%
per decade).
The CE project also examined RCM results for Iceland based on the HIRHAM model (Haugen and
Iversen, 2006). These results showed enhanced warming over the interior of Iceland compared with
the coastal zone, and a tendency for enhanced
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
; from which
extensive data streams enter IMO and are utilized
for forecasts and research purposes.
Dissemination
The main dissemination of IMO is in the form of
forecasts and warnings; through radio, T V, direct di-
alog with stakeholders and through IMO‘s web-site
(vedur.is). Additionally, the web provides compre-
hensive real-time data on the weather, earthquakes
and deformation, as well
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
eruption at or near Grímsvötn, was about to
begin, or was already in progress. Immediately,
NCPA upgraded to alert phase and OACC di-
verted all air traffi c to >60 nautical miles (>111
km) distance from Grímsvötn. A volcano-SIG-
MET warning of a signifi cant meteorological
hazard to aviation was broadcast at 2026 UTC,
specifying the likely location and probable
height of the tephra plume
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
) and Jónsdóttir (2008).
Therefore, comparison of measured and simulated water balance cannot be di-
rectly used for validation of the model-generated precipitation. According to the
non-scaled MM5 output for the period 1961–1990, mean precipitation for the
whole of Iceland was 1790 mm y−1. After scaling the precipitation, this value
was reduced to 1750mm y−1, i.e. by approximately 2%. This difference
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf
are largest. Positive sensible heat fluxes also occur over
the interior regions of Vatnajökull and Hofsjökull at around noon on 27 July, due to the cold
northeasterly flow over the glaciers (see Figure 10). However, along the edges and on the other
icecaps, sensible heat fluxes under clear skies are directed from the atmosphere to the snow. On 3
August, with clear skies, weak winds, and with above freezing
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_006.pdf
the
interior of the ice sheet is somewhat too dry (Fig. 9b). By average a mean negative precipitation
bias of 0.16myr−1 results which equals 43% of the mean from Burgess et al. (2010) (Table 2).
6 Bias Correction and Future Scenario Runs
After having specified a number of biases in the RCM output the model runs were repeated
with bias-corrected RCM data.
To correct the temporal bias of Ta, daily
/media/ces/ces_geus_paakitsoq_full_report.pdf
m
J
M5 [C°] -3
obs. [C°] -4
nce 1
re 5. Comp
26); an int
temperatu
this system
y gridded v
picion abo
-Jökulsá w
similar dif
han observ
h elevation
ces the effe
months No
ly only on
high the tem
n band wi
refore be s
onthly tem
an Feb Ma
.2 -3.1 -3.
.3 -4.1 -3.
.1 1.0 0.6
arison of m
erpolation
re is shown
atic differe
alues, see T
ut the qual
atershed; b
ference wa
ations for t
gradient fo
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf