ECHAM4/OPYC3 NorClim/HIRHAM 25x25 km
'Empirical Adjustment' to 1 x 1 km
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
1 10 100 1000
Return period (years)
P
e
a
k
d
a
i
l
y
d
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e
(
m
3
/
s
)
1981-2010 GEV from annual max series
2021-2050 GEV from annual max series
2021 - 2050 Annual maximum series
1981 - 2010 Annual maximum series
1981-2010
200-year flood
2021
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
............................................................................................................ 4
3. Best estimates of temperature and precipitation change................................................ 7
4. How certainly will temperature and precipitation increase? ....................................... 10
5. Uncertainty ranges and quantiles of temperature and precipitation change .............. 12
6. Hindcast verification of the resampling ensemble
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
of intersite dependence should not be
a concern in regional estimation and regionalization is valuable even with moderate amount of
heterogeneity, intersite dependence and misspecification of the frequency distribution.
16
−2 0 2 4 6
0.
0
0.
5
1.
0
1.
5
2.
0
2.
5
3.
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
q(T
)=
Q(
T)
µ
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
WaSiM vhm51, H= −1.8
WaSiM vhm52, H= −1.9
WaSiM vhm51+vhm52, H= −2.5
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
with terrain elevation above mean sea level. Additionally, the vertical dependence of
seasonally averaged temperature within the boundary layer atmosphere is well approximated by
a linear profile. Temperature as a function of height, x , above mean sea level can therefore be
written as
T (x ) =
(
T0 +LTx for 0 x h
T0 +LT h+L(x h) for h x h+ z ;
(6)
where T0 is air temperature at mean sea level, LT
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/2013_001_Nawri_et_al.pdf
was deployed and together with the permanent NNSN stations in that area it contained 33+
stations within span 350 x 200 km. About 1250 earthquakes of M>0.0 was recorded during the project
period and new map of seismicity of that area was retrieved.
The main aim of the project is to reveal the stress field in that particular region and therefore
determination of stable
/media/norsem/norsem_michalek.pdf
advantageous
inequity aversion is relevant for the second mover’s utility, which can be written as:
ui2 = 10 − xi2 + 0.8 (x1 + xi2)− βi (x1 − xi2) (3)
The second mover should contribute the same amount as the first mover to the public good if
her degree of advantageous inequity aversion is such that βi ≥ 0.2. The equilibrium decision
of the second mover is written as:
x∗i2 =
0 if βi < 0.2
x1 if βi
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
2010) is estimated.
x Finally, Gaussian kernel smoothing (Equation (10) in Räisänen and Ruokolainen
2008a) is applied to convert the discrete frequency distribution of the extrapolated
observations to a continuous probability distribution.
The data sets used, the derivation of the regression coefficients and the Gaussian kernel
smoothing are discussed in Appendices A.1-A.3
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf