Gradual fading of seismic activity at Bárðarbunga and the dyke intrusion
Gradual fading since the onset of events 16th August 2014
16.12.2014
by Martin Hensch
16 December 2014
The earthquake sequence around Bárðarbunga in 2014
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/3039
............................................................................................................ 4
3. Best estimates of temperature and precipitation change................................................ 7
4. How certainly will temperature and precipitation increase? ....................................... 10
5. Uncertainty ranges and quantiles of temperature and precipitation change .............. 12
6. Hindcast verification of the resampling ensemble
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
at 67 sites: (a) 100-year floods with the Gumbel
distribution and (b) average discharge.
−6
0
−4
0
−2
0
0
20
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Scenario number
Change in 100a Flood (%
)
Fig. 5. Box plot (median, 25 and 75 percentiles, average [diamond], max and min) of changes in 100-year floods in 2070–2099 at the 67 sites with different scenarios.
Numbering of the scenarios
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208/
a probability of an
adverse event occurring and a measure of the
associated event. Larger consequence and larger
probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk =
Probability x Damage)
Conclusions – Part 1
Terminology
• Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others –
and be specific defining the terminology you use
Concepts
• Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
coincide with jökulhlaups.
Monitoring Systems
To monitor seismic and volcanic activity in
Iceland, IMO operates a nationwide digital
network of 44 seismic stations (network name:
SIL) [Bödvarsson et al., 1999], six volumetric
borehole strain meters, and 16 continuous
GPS stations (network name: ISGPS) (H. Geirs-
son et al., Current plate movements across
the Mid-Atlantic Ridge determined
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
to 36 km
(~7- 32 mi)
head2right ECHAM5 forcing
head2right CCSM3 forcing
(A1B and A2 scenarios)
HadRM
Resolution: 25 km
(~15 mi)
head2right HadCM3 forcing
Land-Atmosphere Interactions
Snow Cover Change Temperature Change
Change in winter temperature (degrees C)Change in fraction of days with snow cover
Wintertime Change from 1990s to 2050s
Salathé et al. 2008
Extreme Precipitation
Change from 1970
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
/CES_D2.4_task1.html
2
Table of Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 2
2. Methods and data sets 5
3. Results for temperature 7
4. Results for precipitation 14
5. Tables for individual locations 19
6. Summary 24
Appendix: details of methodology 26
A.1 Data sets 26
A.2 Derivation of regression coefficients 27
A.3 Smoothing of the probability distributions 30
References 31
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf