insufficiently
understood climate processes and feedbacks, contributing to the challenge, which the region poses
from the viewpoint of climate modeling. Increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases will have
a larger effect on climate in Northern Eurasia, particularly in its cold regions, than in most of other
regions of the Earth. Russia, that occupies most part of Northern Eurasia
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
periods included in Fig. 1.1., the table also provides model-based best
estimates for the distributions for the years 2030 and 2050, assuming that greenhouse gas
concentrations follow the SRES A1B scenario (Naki �enovi � and Swart 2000). The analysis
indicates that warm (cold) Decembers will become increasingly more (less) common with
time. For example, the median December mean
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
(
%
)
A2
B2
Future
climate
Down-
scaling
Bias
correction
Global
100-250 km Scale
Regional
10-25 km
Hydrological
50-500 m
Present
climate
Climate change impacts on hydrology
The cascade of uncertainties
Models
• Emission scenarios
IPCC Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Future
climate
Down
scaling
Bias
correction
Global
100-250 km Scale
Regional
10-25 km
Hydrological
50-500 m
Present
climate
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
the largest runoff peak of the year.
Compared to the period 1961–1990, a warming of about 1°C has already been observed
for both watersheds during the period 2000–2009, causing considerable discharge changes
in the same direction as the predicted future changes.
8
2 Introduction
Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is predicted to lead to
changed climate (IPCC, 2007
/media/ces/2010_016.pdf
main IPCC emission scenarios
results on changes in temperature and precipitation in the above region
surrounding Iceland where extracted from the CMIP5 model archives and examined.
The scenarios range from a warm business-as-usual-case (RCP8.5) to an extensive
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), resulting in only modes warming
rates. For the middle of the century, the ensemble
/climatology/iceland/climate-report
main IPCC emission scenarios
results on changes in temperature and precipitation in the above region
surrounding Iceland where extracted from the CMIP5 model archives and examined.
The scenarios range from a warm business-as-usual-case (RCP8.5) to an extensive
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), resulting in only modes warming
rates. For the middle of the century, the ensemble
/climatology/iceland/climate-report/
) by fossil fuel burning
and land-use change. As the terrestrial bio-
sphere is an active player in the global carbon
cycle, changes in land use feed back to the
climate of the Earth through regulation of the
content of atmospheric CO2, the most impor-
tant greenhouse gas, and changing albedo (e.g.,
energy partitioning).
Recently, the climate modeling community
has started to develop more
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf