– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
and objective
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
Study area
• Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in
north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part
of Finland
• Climatologically different zones:
• NE:
• between middle- and north-boreal zones
• continental climate
• SW:
• between hemi- and south-boreal zones
• maritime influence
• Past and future monthly precipitation sums in
May-September
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
and our intention is to run these models dur-
ing times of hazardous events and even on a daily
basis to further improve monitoring.
Avalanche monitoring has progressed. The em-
phasis is now on improving our services, especially
to the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration
with regard to transport. The reason is that com-
munity structure has changed considerably in recent
years and the need
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
on the quantity at hand (strengths and weaknesses in
Box 1. The error propagation equation
The error propagation equations for the most common
operators are (s is the standard deviation):
Addition and Subtraction: z ¼ x þ yþ/ or z ¼
x y/
sz ¼
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
s2x
þ
s2y
þ/
r
Multiplication by an exact number: z
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
of the analogue method is introduced. In Section 3 hydrological and me-
teorological data used in the analysis are presented. Section 4 describes the different strategies
considered for implementing the method and Section 5 presents some results. Some concluding
remarks are made in Section 6.
2 The analogue method
Let X(t) be a state of a dynamical system at time t, known through the observation of k variables
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera