1
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change based on
global climate model simulations (CES deliverable 2.2)
Jouni Räisänen1
Kimmo Ruosteenoja2
19 December 2008
1 Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
Email: jouni.raisanen@helsinki.fi
2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Email
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
)
Faculty of Forest Sciences
University of Joensuu
P.O. Box 111, FI-80101
Joensuu, Finland.
Email: mailto:seppo.kellomaki@joensuu.fi
Here is a full PDF version of the Bio Energy flyer
Partners
CICERO, Center for Klimaforskning, Norway
Denmark
/ces/project/bio_energy/
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature
and precipitation change based on
global climate model simulations
(CES deliverable 2.2)
Jouni Räisänen
Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
Email: jouni.raisanen@helsinki.fi
Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Email: kimmo.ruosteenoja
/media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf
to theoretical framework. I do also want to thank him for an
enjoyable time during this work, both in the office and in the field.
This work was carried out as a part of the Skaftá cauldrons research project which
was funded and supported by the Icelandic Centre For Research (RANNÍS), Kvískerja-
sjóður, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Landsvirkjun (the National Power Com-
pany), the National Energy
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf
), and the National Energy
Authority (Orkustofnun).
3 Model terrain and surface type
The HARMONIE model dominant surface type and terrain elevation are shown in Figures 1
and 2, respectively. Surface type is specified in SURFEX by the global land surface database
ECOCLIMAP-I (Champeaux et al., 2005). Within each grid box, ground coverage is represented
by fractions of one for each category of surface type
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_005.pdf
in a collaboration between the Austrian engineering company Ingenieurbüro
Illmer Daniel e.U. (DI), Efla consulting engineers and the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO).
Daniel Illmer carried out the analysis of landslide protection measures, Jón Kristinn Helgason,
Tómas Jóhannesson and Eiríkur Gíslason wrote sections about the geographical setting, the land-
slide history and the assessment
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf
should be incorporated
into decision support systems and tools to capture the
and the complexity of water management as it is seen from
different mental frames and interest group positions should
be used in adaptive water management.
The broad range of tools available for integrated water
resource management (IWRM) includes e.g. GWP Tool-
box, HarmoniCA/Catchmod tools, decision support sys-
tems
/media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf
the glacier will always be the
same regardless of what flows out from them and they will function as an endless source of
excess water. This bug has still not been fixed but can be avoided by setting the hydraulic
conductivity for the aquifer under the glacier manually to zero. By this procedure the
groundwater module under the glacier is disabled.
13
3.2.2 Better representation of seasonal
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf
in
the atmosphere
Changes in statistical
distributions including
precipitation extremes
Bengtsson Environ. Res. Lett. 2010, 5, 025002, Fig. 1
Global land precipitation since 1900
– strong regional differences, insignificant global trend
IPCC 2007, Fig. 3.12-3.13
Drought Severity Index since 1900
– dry areas drier, wet areas wetter
IPCC 2007, FAQ 3.1, Fig. 1
IPCC 2007, Box TS.2, Fig. 1
Dynamic circulation
/media/ces/Moberg_Anders_CES_2010.pdf
development:
Experiences from the SCENES project
Kasper Kok a,, Mathijs van Vliet a, Ilona Bärlund c, Anna Dubel b, Jan Sendzimir b
a Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
b International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplaz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
c Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Brückstrasse 3a, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany
a r t i c
/media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf