CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES data sets. Top: mean changes and their difference. Bottom: standard
deviations and their ratio.
There are more marked differences between the spread of the two ensembles. Large-scale
temperature changes in northern Europe vary less within the ENSEMBLES than within the
CMIP3 data set. This is the case for both the annual mean temperature change (Fig. 3.7,
bottom
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
– 2007: Mass balance profiles
large variability?
high ELA?
large melt? large melt?
RCM analysis
11 / 16
HIRHAM4:
bias Ta
RCM analysis
11 / 16
RCAO:
bias Ta
RCM analysis
HIRHAM4
RCAO
Standard
deviations
of all monthly
means
RCM analysis
accumulation reference: Burgess et al. (2010)
mean Burgess et al. (2010): 0.37 m w.e.
mean RCAO: 0.28 m w.e.
mean HIRHAM4: 0.21 m w.e.
stddev of annual means (all
/media/ces/Machguth_Horst_CES_2010.pdf
6University of Washington,
Seattle, WA 98195, USA. 7NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: cmilly@usgs.gov.
An uncertain future challenges water planners.
Published by AAAS
on July 12, 201
1
www.sciencemag.or
g
Downloaded from
1 FEBRUARY 2008 VOL 319 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org574
POLICYFORUM
combined with opera-
tions
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
measurements from 13 magnetic observatories worldwide.
As the columns are higher and change colour from green to yellow or red, the Kp-index shows greater magnetic disturbances and one can expect more powerful aurora. The horizontal time-axis shows time of the day today from 0 to 24 hours (UTC - Icelandic standard time) with one column for each 3 hours. Below the main graph there are smaller 3
/weather/articles/nr/2549
of seismic
stations in the SIL network.
An earlier estimate of PGA attenuation with distance was made by Halldórsson and Sveinsson
(2003), for the development of the Eurocode 8 standard. It was based on 131 observations of
horizontal acceleration from 22 earthquakes (18 in SW Iceland and 4 in N Iceland). The events
were of magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.5, and recorded between 1986 and 2000
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
increases by 2.1ºC, and the interannual standard deviation dec-
reases by 6%, when the simulated global mean T increases by 1ºC.
Of course, there is variation between different models!
Time series of winter mean temperature
in Helsinki (1961-2008)
Blue line = observations
Red line = best-estimate present-day (2010) climate
Grey dots = results for individual models
Probability distribution
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
50
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90
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Mobile Homes
0
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20
30
40
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
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/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
The methodology of the statistical correction of model data employed in Part 1 is described in
detail in the earlier reports. In short, the original model wind speeds are transformed linearly
such that at station locations, separately for individual months and for different categories of
the geostrophic wind speed and direction, averages and standard deviations are identical to the
measured
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/2013_001_Nawri_et_al.pdf
– Thanks."
From Gloucestershire, England:"Thank you for all your hard work and effort on the brilliant site of Iceland's erupting volcano. I'm glued to the site day and night, it is so brilliant."
From Reading, England:"As ever, IMO's web material is utterly excellent – really setting a high standard in good science communication."
And from Saskatchewan, Canada: "As a volcano enthusiast
/about-imo/the-web/awards_and_press/