of Storbreen, Norway. Journal of Glaciology, 54 (185), 245-258. (Available online at IGS: http://www.igsoc.org/journal/54/185/j07j058.pdf.).
Crochet, P. (2007). A study of regional precipitation trends in Iceland using a high quality gauge network and ERA-40. J. Climate, 20(18), 4659-4677, doi: 10.1175/JCLI4255.1.
Crochet P., Jóhannesson T., Jónsson T., Sigurðsson O., Björnsson H., Pálsson F. & Barstad I
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pu
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fframewor
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Participator
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purpos
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Particip
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Contro
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of
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for
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betwee
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Timin
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s
Participatio
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/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
the last 100 years. The findings of the meetings are as follows:
o Earthquakes in Bardarbunga: Seismic activity has been very strong since mid-august. The activity
peaked in first half of September, it has slowly decreased since then, but activity remains intense. The
period of seismic unrest is one of the largest ever recorded in a volcano globally.
o Earthquakes in the dyke from Bardarbunga
/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20141203.pdf
ANNUAL REPOR T 2014
2
I C E L A N D I C M E T O F F I C E / A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 1 4
?Veðurstofa Íslands 2015
Bústaðavegur 7–9, 108 Reykjavík, Iceland
The annual report was drafted by the IMO staff.
Editor: Sigurlaug Gunnlaugsdóttir
Design and layout: Hvíta húsið
Printing: Oddi
ISSN 2251-5607
Cover photo: Gro Birkefeldt Møller Pedersen
I N D E X
4 Bárðarbunga
7 Rockslide
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/IMO_AnnualReport2014.pdf
ofan byggðarinnar. (Náttúrufræðingurinn, 69, 1, 3−10, 1999, authors T. Jóhannesson, O. Pétursson, J. G. Egilsson and G. G. Tómassson) [abstract] (html)
A map on a selected front page shows recent observations of avalanches. For user access to avalanche and landslide data, an avalanche map viewer is available
/avalanches/imo/dams/
14 0 1 2 3 8 12
15 0 1 2 3 8 12
16 0 1 2 4 8 12
17 0 1 2 4 8 12
18 0 1 2 4 8 12
19 0 1 2 4 8 13
20 0 1 2 4 8 13
21 0 2 3 5 9 13
22 1 2 3 5 9 13
23 1 2 3 4 9 13
MEAN 1 2 2 4 8 13
10
AE
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CLIM
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:BIK
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:2001–201
0
L
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:6
3
59’06"
N
LONGITUDE
:2
2
36’20"
W
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V
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AB
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MSL
:5
2
/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
Withdrawal
Reliability
Grand Coulee
Recreation
Reliability
R
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l
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b
i
l
i
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y
(
%
,
m
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b
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e
d
)
Control
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
RCM
2040-2069
60
80
100
120
140
Firm
Hydropower
Annual Flow
Deficit at
McNary
P
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PCM Control Climate and
Current Operations
PCM Projected Climate
and Current Operations
PCM Projected
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
50
60
70
80
90
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Mobile Homes
0
10
20
30
40
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
measures
Downscaling and
statistical correction
Water system impacts
Hydro-ecological models
Socio-economic
scenarios
Socio-economic
impacts
Fig. 2 Structural elements in
the assessment of climate change
impacts and adaptation illustrating
the uncertainty cascade
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change
Tabl
e
1
Ch
aracterisatio
n
o
fke
y
sou
rce
s
o
fun
certaint
y
in
th
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certaint
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casc
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thei
rnatur
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
:15-11:30
Practical examples + conclusions
• Exploratory scenario development – SAS approach
• Group model building - Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
• Normative scenario development - Backcasting
Conclusions
LECTURE 1
Scenario development
Underlying issues and concepts
Content
Lecture 1: an introduction
• Complex problems
• Complex System analysis
• Tools and methods to analyse complex systems
o Methods
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf