to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks.
Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario
methods.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
* Tel.: +31 317 482422; fax: +31 317 419000.
E-mail address: kasper.kok@wur.nl.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Global Environmental Change
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
methods to calculate the different elements of the hydrological
cycle depending on the availability of input data. For calculating evapotranspiration, the
simple temperature-based Hamon approach was adopted. For calculating snowmelt, a
temperature-wind index method was used where the effects on melting, of increased
convectional thermal transport with increased wind speed are accounted
/media/ces/2010_016.pdf
The purpose of defining avalanche problems is to improve and simplify the display of regional avalanche forecasts and describe avalanche conditions in a simple way. People should always bear in mind that the forecast is a simplification of reality and dangers can be hidden in more places than the bulletin describes.
https://lawine.tirol.gv.at/data/eaws/typical_problems
/avalanches/forecast/help
)
and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at
Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass
balance model to study the climate sensitivity and
to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949.
The model is calibrated and validated with data
from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating
in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Re-
gression analysis revealed that bw was best mod
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
research
VIII. Resources: extensive vs limited
IX. Institutional conditions: open vs constrained
C Scenario content - complex vs simple:
X. Temporal nature: chain vs snapshot
XI. Variables: heterogeneous vs homogenous
XII. Dynamics: peripheral vs trend
XIII. Level of deviation: alternative vs conventional
XIV. Level of integration: high vs low
Scenarios - types
EXAMPLE 1 – EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS
/media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
of market organisation alternatives
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 10
Cost-benefit analysis – the basics 3
Simple example: despite positive IRR still cash flow challenge years 1 - 8
CBA example - initial investment 100; interest and discount 5%;
operational cost +5%/y; benefits +10%/y; IRR = 7.4%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
years
m
o
n
e
y
u
n
it
s
writing off
finance
/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
on at least two websites on
hraun.vedur.is, the IMO's wiki page has comprehensive information and Division of
Observations maintains their own information on the stations in files in shared folders.
Maintaining the information in all these places is not a simple task. A database with all the
stations, equipment and other relevant information is recommended in this context. The
database has
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2011/2011_005.pdf
an ocean
module. Possibly this module generates local effects such as too early or too late sea ice
13
breakup as well as ocean currents that agree worse to observations than the GCMs ocean
state which is the lower boundary condition in HIRHAM4. HIRHAM4 also includes a simple
parameterization for the ice sheet surface properties (Stendel et al., 2007) which is missing in
RCAO. This could
/media/ces/ces_geus_paakitsoq_full_report.pdf
of communication. However, it could be
9
improved e.g. by making it more simple and easy to grasp. The list of publications is
important, but at present the publications cannot be downloaded. A future improvement
would be to have a list of downloadable publications. A substantial improvement would be
executive summaries of publications adapted for stakeholders. Fact sheets could be an
important
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
is a value to be chosen or fitted (see below). Before choosing form (2) to represent
R, the more simple form
22 krR += (3)
of Boore et al (1997) and Bindi et al. (2006) was tested, so that k was fitted independent of M.
However, the least squares fit gave a negligible value for k (~10-7 km) and thus, contrary to
Joyner and Boore (1981) we find no support for this form while we do find
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf