a probability of an
adverse event occurring and a measure of the
associated event. Larger consequence and larger
probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk =
Probability x Damage)
Conclusions – Part 1
Terminology
• Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others –
and be specific defining the terminology you use
Concepts
• Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
26 October 2012
ESC statement on L’Aquila sentence
The European Seismological Commission (ESC) as a Commission of the
International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior
(IASPEI) endorses and adheres to the IASPEI Press Release on the L'Aquila
sentence (http://www.iaspei.org/news_items/laquila_IASPEI_press_release_final.pdf
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/hlidarefni/ESC-IASPEI-statement-LAquila-2012-1.pdf
coincide with jökulhlaups.
Monitoring Systems
To monitor seismic and volcanic activity in
Iceland, IMO operates a nationwide digital
network of 44 seismic stations (network name:
SIL) [Bödvarsson et al., 1999], six volumetric
borehole strain meters, and 16 continuous
GPS stations (network name: ISGPS) (H. Geirs-
son et al., Current plate movements across
the Mid-Atlantic Ridge determined
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
to 36 km
(~7- 32 mi)
head2right ECHAM5 forcing
head2right CCSM3 forcing
(A1B and A2 scenarios)
HadRM
Resolution: 25 km
(~15 mi)
head2right HadCM3 forcing
Land-Atmosphere Interactions
Snow Cover Change Temperature Change
Change in winter temperature (degrees C)Change in fraction of days with snow cover
Wintertime Change from 1990s to 2050s
Salathé et al. 2008
Extreme Precipitation
Change from 1970
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
/CES_D2.4_task1.html
2
Table of Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 2
2. Methods and data sets 5
3. Results for temperature 7
4. Results for precipitation 14
5. Tables for individual locations 19
6. Summary 24
Appendix: details of methodology 26
A.1 Data sets 26
A.2 Derivation of regression coefficients 27
A.3 Smoothing of the probability distributions 30
References 31
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
A
0 100 200 300
0
1
2
3
4
5
Days since 1st sep.
n
o
rm
al
ise
d
Q,
W
S,
SW
E Q
WS
SWE
vhm278
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Figure 4. Normalized mean input water supply (WS), mean discharge (Q) and mean snow-
pack (SWE) seasonality.
16
22
1
27
8
20
5
20
6
26
5
27
7
14
8
14
9
0
2
4
6
8
12
method=ward
clusters
H
ei
gh
t
22
1
26
5
27
7
14
8
14
9
27
8
20
5
20
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
method=complete
clusters
H
ei
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
)+Ewi1( ˜X2) (5)
⇔ EUi1 = pi1[vi1(Xi1)+wi1(X2)] + (1 − pi1)[vi1(Xi1)+wi1(X2)] (6)
here vi1(·) represents the utility from the first mover’s own gain. We assume constant relative
risk aversion for the function vi1(·) to represent the risk preferences of agent i as mover 1:
vi( ˜Xi1)=
˜X1−rii1
1 − ri
(7)
Agent i is risk neutral if ri = 0, risk averse if ri > 0 and risk loving if ri < 0.8 Subjects
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf