will
continue alongside the gradual anthropogenic climate changes.
Figure 1.1. A schematic view of sources of uncertainty in climate change as a function of time
(see text for further discussion).
The relative importance of these uncertainties depends on the time period considered (Figure
1.1). Scenario uncertainty is very important in the long run. For example, the
Intergovernmental Panel/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
where mid-level cloud cover, over the land, is underrepresented.
8
Figure 1. Weather conditions on 27 July 2012 at 12 UTC (local time). Top panel: large-
scale analysis based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data, with mean sea level air pressure
(black contours), temperature at 850 hPa (dashed red contours), and 6-hourly accumu-
lated precipitation (coloured contours). Bottom panel: manned
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_006.pdf
Related content
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
NOAA Climate Program Office
NASA
/climatology/articles/nr/1213
Related content
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
NOAA Climate Program Office
NASA
/climatology/articles/nr/1213/
/j.jenvman.2007.05.009
Huntjens P, Pahl-Wostl C, Grin J (2010) Climate change adaptation in European river basins. Reg. Environ. Change, 10, 263-284. DOI 10.1007/s10113-009-0108-
6
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
) and a data set of
10 global AOGCM simulations, also based on the A1B emis-
sion scenario, submitted by various institutions to the IPCC
for its fourth assessment report (IPCC, 2007). These 10
Fig. 8. Mean annual temperature (upper panel) at Hólar in
Hornafjörður and precipitation (lower panel) at Fagurhólsmýri. The
gray areas indicate the periods when the time-series were recon-
structed
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
at Springerlink.com
Abstract We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation
uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is
different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the
IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
for Iceland were made. The CE
project used an ensemble of six GCMs and RCMs from the PRUDENCE project for four different
emissions scenarios (B1, B2, A2, and A1FI) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The GCMs used by the CE project showed more warming during winter than
summer. During winter, the median projected warming from 1961–90 to 2070–99 ranged from
3–6 K, and from 2
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf