measures
Downscaling and
statistical correction
Water system impacts
Hydro-ecological models
Socio-economic
scenarios
Socio-economic
impacts
Fig. 2 Structural elements in
the assessment of climate change
impacts and adaptation illustrating
the uncertainty cascade
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change
Tabl
e
1
Ch
aracterisatio
n
o
fke
y
sou
rce
s
o
fun
certaint
y
in
th
eun
certaint
y
casc
ad
ean
d
thei
rnatur
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
:15-11:30
Practical examples + conclusions
• Exploratory scenario development – SAS approach
• Group model building - Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
• Normative scenario development - Backcasting
Conclusions
LECTURE 1
Scenario development
Underlying issues and concepts
Content
Lecture 1: an introduction
• Complex problems
• Complex System analysis
• Tools and methods to analyse complex systems
o Methods
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Climate data
o Increase in precipitation
o Change in road deterioration
o Frequency of high and low temperatures
o Heavy rainfall
o Increase in average temperature
Technical state of the roads – state of the Finnish road network: data available from Road administration
Data on past events about climate related damage on roads
Technical development of e.g. asphalt – more durable
/media/loftslag/Group3-Road-scenarios.pdf
the observed data sets are smaller in SW than in NE
• MMM overestimates precipitation, but is closer to observations in SW than
NE barb2right Better observational coverage in SW
SW
NE
p
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
s
u
m
(
m
m
)
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
SWNE
• Precipitation trends (mm / 10 yr) in 1961-2000 according to observations
and model simulations (MMM)
• Including the range
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208
We are hoping to find time to improve this glossary. Only a few items are available. For your relevant search, please click on one of the letters below:
A Á B C D E É F G H I Í J K L M N O Ó P Q R S T U Ú V W X Y Ý Z Þ Æ Ö
A
A: Icelandic abbreviation of East (compass direction, easterly, eastern).
ANA: Icelandic abbreviation of Eastnorthesast (compass direction).
ASA: Icelandic
/weather/articles/nr/1208/
to theoretical framework. I do also want to thank him for an
enjoyable time during this work, both in the office and in the field.
This work was carried out as a part of the Skaftá cauldrons research project which
was funded and supported by the Icelandic Centre For Research (RANNÍS), Kvískerja-
sjóður, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Landsvirkjun (the National Power Com-
pany), the National Energy
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf
subsidence in Bárðarbunga and insignificant crustal
movements north of Vatnajökull around the dyke.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
o High air pollution was detected yesterday in Egilsstaðir and Reyðarfjörður.
Forecasts indicate that the gas cloud will blow towards the north in the next 24
hours. High concentrations of sulphuric gases can be expected in
Mývatnssveit
/media/jar/Bardarbunga-2014_September-events.pdf
maps for 1971-2000
Daily precipitation maps are available on request and further information on the making of the maps. IMO's contacts for this project are Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson.
Reference:
Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, T. Jónsson, O. Sigurðsson, H. Björnsson, F. Pálsson and I. Barstad (2007): Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation in Iceland using a linear model
/weather/articles/nr/1625
Neotectonics in Nordland; NEONOR 2
C. Lindholm, O. Olesen, I. Janutyte, S. Gradman, M. Keiding, H. Kierulf,
M. Ask, J. Dehls, Y. Maystrenko, F. Riis, L. Rise and other project partners
The Nordland shore region is known to be seismically active with deep local sediment basins on the
continental shelf that stretches some 200 km west of the coastline. The offshore areas west of Nordland
have
/media/norsem/norsem_lindholm.pdf