variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
(
1
/
º
C
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf