at the plate boundary, leading to volcanic activity and earthquakes. The
geological units are shown on the map in Figure 1. The Western Volcanic Zone (WVZ)
encompasses the part of the rift which enters land at the western tip of Reykjanes Peninsula
(RP), runs east along the peninsula to the Hengill region, where it turns northward. East off the
Hengill region the rifting shifts approximately 90/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
................................................................................................................................... 88
Melvold, K. and Laumann, T.
A coupled mass-balance and ice-flow model for Midtdalsbreen; projection of glacier length based on climate
scenarios (CES) ..................................................................................................................................................... 90
Thorsteinsson, Th., Sigurðsson, O. and Einarsson, B.
Monitoring changes
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
but for precipitation changes.
Changes in local temperature are strongly controlled by the large-scale temperature change.
This is reflected both by the small amplitude of the regression residuals (typically 0.1-0.3°C)
and the large explained variance (mostly above 80%, with some exceptions like the Baltic
Sea). For changes in precipitation, the correlation between the local and the large-scale
changes
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
in comparison with natural variability, the simulated greenhouse-
gas-induced precipitation changes are weaker than changes in temperature. Thus, for example,
the probability that the mean annual precipitation in 2011-2020 in northern Europe will
exceed the mean for 1971-2000 is only 60-80%, depending on the region considered.
However, the probability increases in later decades when the signal
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
) Finland the spring flood peaks are
currently by far the largest floods and as they mostly decreased
with climate change the magnitude of the annual 2 and 100-year
floods decreased. In the north (Fig. 8a) some scenarios still pro-
duced large spring floods in 2070–2099. In southern Finland (in
the coastal rivers Fig. 8e and in the lake area Fig. 8d) large floods
occurred not only in spring but also
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf