-culate mass balance changes bs was modelled usingsnow depths calculated by the model (bs-m1). Thearea distribution from 1984 was used; any changesin area were neglected. We calculated the change inbw, bs and bn as well as change in days of maximumbw (bwd) and minimum bs (bsd) for a –1°C, +1°C,+2°C and +3°C change in temperature, for a –10%,+10%, +20% and +30% change in precipitation
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
on the
Reykjanes Peninsula (boxes B-F). .................................................................... 81
Table A.3. Fault parameters for mapped fault segments and clusters in the Hengill
area and the South Iceland seismic zone (boxes G-I). ..................................... 82
Table A.4. Fault parameters for mapped fault segments on the Hestvatn fault (J-21)
(box N
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_003rs.pdf
-based maps ............................................................................ 81
5.4.5 Probability of exceedance and accumulation rate ............................................ 87
5.5 Towards an integration of the three explosive eruptive scenarios ............................. 93
6 Main conclusions and next steps
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf
............................................................................... 20
Räisänen, J.
Probability distributions of monthly-to-annual mean temperature and precipitation in a changing climate ......... 22
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg G. and Ullerstig A.
Nordic weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model: Model evaluation and
future projections
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
AVAILABLE FROM:
http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/~jaraisan/CES_D2.3/CES_D2.3.html
2
Table of Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 2
2. Model simulations 4
3. Methods used for deriving probabilistic climate change forecasts 7
3.1 Resampling and variance correction 9
3.2 Relationship between local and large-scale climate changes in ENSEMBLES
simulations 10
3.3 Comparison of large-scale
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf