12 1 month 12
Columbia River Basin Water Resource Sensitivity
to PCM Climate Change Scenarios
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Portland-
Vancouver
Spring Flood
Control
Reliability
Portland-
Vancouver
Winter Flood
Control
Reliability
Autumn Firm
Power
Reliability
(November)
% of Control
Hydropower
Revenues
McNary
Instream
Target
Reliability
(April-
August)
Middle Snake
Agricultural
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
the territories of European
Russia (ER) and Europe (EU) an ensemble of 9 CMIP3 [1] comprehensive global (coupled
atmosphere-ocean) climate models is used in this assessment (Table 1); so called A2 scenario is
considered. Both A2 and A1B scenarios are similar in terms of resulting global mean warming up to
the mid-21st century IPCC [2]. The projected changes in ER and EU in many cases continue
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
: Yesterday, at 16:10 GMT, a discharge of 735 m3/s was measured in the
Gígja river. Discharge levels will likely return to pre-flood conditions
within 2–3 days.
Seismic tremor: In comparison to yesterday, tremor intensity at seismic station 'grf'' is
lower. Overall, seismic tremor at 'grf' is presently 20% of the level
reached during the peak of the jökulhlaup. There are no indications
/media/vatnafar/flod/Grimsvotn_status_2010-11-05_IES_IMO.pdf
estimation. NVE Report No. 1 - 2009, ISBN 978-82-410-0680-7; 44 p.
Meilutyté-Barauskiene, D. (2009) Impact of Climate Change on Runoff of the Lithuanian Rivers, Summary of Doctoral Dissertation, Technological Science. Environmental Engineering (04T). Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuanian Energy Institute.
Roald, L.A., Hisdal, H. & Lawrence, D. (2009). Hydrologi og skred før, nå og i fremtiden. I
/ces/publications/nr/1938
)
Annual
Winter
Summer
• Accounts for natural
variability and differences
between climate models
Width of the distribution primarily determined by
natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer.
Winter Summer Annual
Best estimate (ºC) 1.3 0.7 1.0
5-95% uncertainty range (ºC) -0.5…+3.1 -0.2…+1.6 0.0…+1.8
Probability of warming (%) 90% 90% 96%
Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (2007
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
Thursday 13. October
Session program Thursday 13. October
Oral presentation are 20 minutes long, 15 minutes talk plus 5 minutes discussion
/norsem/norsem2016/program/thursday