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1. programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference

with whom a slot is proposed to be swapped. In the closing session on Friday afternoon another two Workshop participants will be offered the opportunity of presenting a brief summary of key impressions and messages (2 x 5 minutes). This will require some degree of co-ordination among the rapporteurs. The Conference organizers need to know in time (Friday morning at the latest) who will present /media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf

2. Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010

! ! 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des m m / m å n e d 55550 Hafslo 60 80 100 120 140 jan feb ar apr ai j j l t m m / m å n e d 55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal Ensemble approach for probabilistic hydrological projections Catchment /media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf

3. Refsgaard_2-uncertainty

/breakthrough curves West East Model C Model A Model B Fractured clay/ Toplayer Sand Clayey till Limestone SelandienLimestone 0 20 40 60 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 N or m al is ed c on ce nt ra ti on 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 40 80 120 160 200 Time in years 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 N or m al is ed c on ce nt ra ti on 0 100 200 300 Time in years 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Model A Model B Model C Simulated /media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf

4. Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal

in flooding were evaluated at 67 sites in Finland with var- iable sizes of runoff areas using a conceptual hydrological model and 20 climate scenarios from both glo- bal and regional climate models with the delta change approach. Floods with a 100-year return period were estimated with frequency analysis using the Gumbel distribution. At four study sites depicting dif- ferent watershed types /media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf

5. Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf

in the 21st Century Evaporation change per Degree T change in the 21st Century Runoff change per Degree T change in the 21st Century 2) Downscaling a) Statistical b) Dynamical Climate Scenarios Global climate simulations, next ~100 yrs Downscaling Delta Precip, Temp Hydrologic Model (VIC) Natural Streamflow Water Management Model DamReleases, Regulated Streamflow Performance Measures Reliability /media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf

6. vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760

/a in dry summers, which is the maximum amount licensed by the local government. 80% of the water is abstracted from aquifers located above 20 masl [Henriksen and Sonnenborg, 2003]. 3. Methods 3.1. Climate-Forcing Data [16] The confidence in Atmosphere-Ocean general circu- lation models (GCM) providing credible quantitative esti- mates of future climate change has increased the past few years /media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf

7. 2010-05-02_En-IES_IMO

; the flood was comparable in size to earlier floods on 30 April. At 19:40 GMT, web-camera images of Gígjökull showed plumes of steam rising from the glacier edge. Additionally, steam is rising from the delta that occupies the lake basin, suggesting the discharge of near-boiling meltwater. Conditions at eruption site: Explosive activity has increased somewhat over the last 2–3 days; mass flux /media/jar/2010-05-02_En-IES_IMO.pdf

8. Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010

ANN−10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 delta w (% ) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17C h a n g e i n g e o s t r o p h i c w i n d s p e e d ( % ) Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling Chen and Aschberger, 2006 17 CM IP G CM s A need for regional ensemble simulations head2right Changes are uncertain head2right Size and sometimes even sign /media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf

9. Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning

on the Shifts of climatic zones from cooler or wetter to warmer or drier (a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B observational data set (0.25º grid) from Haylock et al. (2008) (b-d) Based on CMIP3 GCM runs for A1B & the delta-change method (c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B Jylhä et al. (2010) Uncertainties in climate change schematically Observed climate Future climate Natural /media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf

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