and precipitation
Blue: Uncertainty due to climate models (GCMs)
Green: Uncertainty due to GHG emission scenarios
Orange : Uncertainty due to internal (natural) variability
Uncertainty in climate change adaptation
- General mapping
Refsgaard et al (in preparation)
CRES www.cres-centre.dk
Steps in climate change adaptation
analyses (chain in uncertainty cascade)
Sources of uncertainty Nature of uncertainty
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with respect to risk level and dominating uncertainty following the uncertainty
terminology outlined in Section 2, while the adaptation options are characterised according
to cost level (High/Medium Low) and the classification outlined in Section 3. The three cost
levels apply for internal comparisons within each of the four sectors, but may not be
applicable for comparisons from one table to another.
4.2.1
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-orientation. Subsequently, a mean for the 15
NEP items was calculated for each respondent, represent-
ing a measure of pro-environmental orientation (Dunlap
et al., 2000). The scale had a reasonably high internal
consistency (a ¼ 0:77). Problem awareness was calculated
using the mean of the five items regarding the extent to
which private car use was perceived as a global, local, and
personal threat
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Therefore, forecast hours 24 – 48 of the
later runs are used here, during which all effects of the atmospheric initialisation process have
been eliminated, and the model has completely adjusted to its own internal reality.
7
2 Test cases
This section provides a brief summary of the large-scale atmospheric conditions on the three
days considered in this study, with an emphasis on clouds
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uncertainty that results from our incomplete understanding, and incomplete
capability to describe in climate models, the dynamics of the climate system that
determine its response to changes in external forcing.
z Natural climate variability, resulting in part from variations in solar and volcanic
activity but at least as importantly from the internal dynamics of the climate system
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in external forcing.
z Natural climate variability, resulting in part from variations in solar and volcanic
activity but at least as importantly from the internal dynamics of the climate system, will
continue alongside the gradual anthropogenic climate changes.
Figure 1.1. A schematic view of sources of uncertainty in climate change as a function of time
(see text for further discussion
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be correct and that science therefore has not yet discovered what mechanisms or
internal system feedbacks, or other factors were overlooked. Furthermore, when epistemic
uncertainty is related to the different views and perspectives the various stakeholders have
(i.e., multiple frames), reducing uncertainty by gathering more data or performing further
analyses is not feasible. In such cases, a common
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–3 K during summer (corresponding approximately to 0.3–0.6 K per decade
during winter, and 0.2–0.3 K per decade during summer). The amount of warming was greater for
the high than for the low emissions scenarios, as was the model spread. Furthermore, there was
greater model spread and internal model variability in the wintertime results compared with those
for summer. For the highest emitting
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