A second, but usually smaller, increase in runoff oc-
curs in the autumn. In northern Finland more than 95% of annual
maximum floods are caused by spring snowmelt (cf. Fig. 7a). Also
the small upstream lakes in the northern part of the lake area
and the northernmost of the coastal rivers fall mainly into this cat-
egory. In most coastal rivers the major floods can be caused by
either snowmelt
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
6University of Washington,
Seattle, WA 98195, USA. 7NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: cmilly@usgs.gov.
An uncertain future challenges water planners.
Published by AAAS
on July 12, 201
1
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1 FEBRUARY 2008 VOL 319 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org574
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/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
is given by Helton and
Davis (2003).
4.1. Data uncertainty engine (DUE)
Uncertainty in data may be described in 13 uncertainty cat-
egories (Table 2) depending on how data varies in time and
space (Brown et al., 2005). Each data category is associated
with a range of uncertainty models, for which more specific
probability density functions (pdfs) may be developed with
different simplifying assumptions
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
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/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
than can be expected to originate from the cauldrons, three to four times the wa-
ter equivalent of the accumulation of snow over the watershed of the cauldrons. It has
been estimated that flow from the cauldrons, in addition to the jökulhlaups, could be
2–5 m3 s 1 at maximum (Vatnaskil, 2005). It is possible that part of the sulfate-rich
groundwater from the glacier comes from the cauldrons
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf