tunnisteväriSeuraukset
Scenario probability high
ACT
MONITOR
Consequence
probabi lity low
after control
methods
PREPARE
PREPARE
Scenario probability low
Consequence
probabili ty high
after control
methods
Likely
Very unl ikely
Very likely
Virtuall y certain
Unlikely
V
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Excepti onally unlikely
= major consequences
= moder ate consequences
= minor
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
on the costs of
weather related delays and interruptions. Leviäkangas (2007) mentions an amount of 20 ~ 30
million euro per year. As mentioned before over time road users will start to adapt if they realize
that certain delays occur too frequently. Responses could vary from shifts in departure time to
switching to another mode or even relocation of activities.
A note on service levels
In road
/media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf
glacier-scaling-hydrological model. 88-89.
Machguth, H., & Ahlstrøm, A. (2010). Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the Paakitsoq Area, Illulisat, West Greenland - Scenarios and Related Uncertainties. p. 42-43.
Melvold, K. & Laumann, T. (2010). A coupled mass-balance and ice-flow model for Midtdalsbreen; projection of glacier length based on climate scenarios (CES). 90-91.
Radic, V/ces/publications/nr/1940
force winds are forecast in the east parts tonight and during the morning, first in the southeastern parts.
A more detailed forecast
Increasing winds by evening, east strong gale or whole gale (20 - 27 m/s). Becoming southerly later tonight, possibly reaching hurricane force or about 33 m/s in the East-fjords area. Moderating northeast and later north winds in the western parts. Precipitation
/about-imo/news/nr/3255
73–100Ásdís Helgadóttir, Emmanuel Pagneux, Matthew J. Roberts, Esther H. Jensen og Eiríkur GíslasonShort summaryChapter V. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Rating of flood hazards (pdf 2.35 Mb)Pages 101–122Emmanuel Pagneux og Matthew J. RobertsShort summaryChapter VI. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Spatio-temporal patterns in population exposure to volcanogenic floods
/volcanoes/about-volcanoes/oraefajokull/new-research/
a
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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Large-scale atmospheric patterns
and hydroclimatological variables
Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,
are more accurately assessed by Global
Climate Models than are local variations
/media/ces/ces_SA_group_flyer_new.pdf
) Measured 1997 and 1999 ice surfaces of Lang‐
jökull and Hofsjökull, respectively. c) Steady‐state glacier
geometries after a few hundred year spin‐up with constant
mass balance forcing.
Figure 3: Simulated response of Langjökull (L), Hofsjökull (H)
and southern Vatnajökull (V) to climate change. The inset
numbers are projected volumes relative to the initial stable
ice geometries
/media/ces/ces_flyer_glacierssnowandice.pdf
EA Analyse A/S and Optensys
Energianalys will forecast energy system variables, while SINTEF Energy Research will make
assumptions for the energy system in different cases, include new inputs in the EMPS model and
carry out simulations.
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/media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
-
balance model
• Monthly temperature
• Monthly precipitation
Step 2: Extrapolation of model
parameters to all glaciers in
Iceland and Scandinavia
• Gridded climate variables
Step 3: Future projections until
2100 for each glacier:
- run mass-balance model
- Volume-area scaling
Volume-area-length
scaling
V = c Aγ
• Glacier inventory data
• downscaled GCM scenarios
A(t
V(t
ΔV
Methodology
Step
/media/ces/Hock_Regine_CES_2010rs.pdf
!
!
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jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des
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Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf