Denmark, DK). Participatory planning processes - Group model building
10:00 p9 Simo Haanpää (Aalto University, Fi). Ilmasto-opas.fi (ClimateGuide.fi) web portal - a new tool for managing climate change in Finnish municipalities
10:30 tea/coffee break
11:00 break out sessions : Thursday cases revisited
12:00 - 13:00 lunch
13:00 p10
Helle Katrine Andersen (DANVA, Dk). DANVA CC adaptation plan
/nonam/workshop/program/
to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
and
watershed scale
Statistical downscaling
Dynamical downscaling
3) Hydrological and water resources
implications -- examples
4) Weak links and the path forward
1) Projected global and regional
runoff changes
Median runoff sensitivities per degree of global warming,
from 68 model pairs – 30-year model average runoff minus
1971-2000 model average (23 models, 3 global emissions
scenarios)
51
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
periods that share practically the same multi-model global mean temperature change as
simulated between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 (1.35°C) can be taken as plausible realizations
of the climate change that could occur between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. Sub-sampling the
latter 30-year period with 5-year interval, 12 such pairs of periods (from 1910-1939 / 2011-
2040 to 2021-2050 / 2066-2095
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
erations
which will be
done to protect
against th e
phenome na a nd
its
conse quenc es
The
consequenc es
of the
phenom ena to
the distribution
network
T he
con seque nc
es of the
phe nom ena
to the
pow er
plant
The conse quence s
of the phe nomena
to e nerg y sourc e
and its usability
Probability
according
to IP CC
2007
Phe nom ena acco rding
to regional scena rio
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
). The ice caps are Eyjafjallajo¨kull (ca. 81 km2),
Tindfjallajo¨kull (ca. 15 km2) and Torfajo¨kull (ca. 14 km2). The DEMs were
compiled using aerial photographs from 1979 to 1984, airborne Synthetic
Aperture Radar (SAR) images obtained in 1998 and two image pairs from the
SPOT 5 satellite’s high-resolution stereoscopic (HRS) instrument acquired in
2004. The ice-free part of the accurate DEM from 1998
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf
model. Our estimates are derived from a) three pairs of photographs from 1891 and
2011, b) geomorphological field evidence delineating the maximum glacier extent at the end
of the Little Ice Age, and c) the high-resolution digital elevation model from 2010–2011. The
historical photographs of Frederick W.W. Howell from 1891 were taken at the end of the
Little Ice Age in Iceland, thus providing
/media/vatnafar/joklar/Reykholt-abstracts.pdf