scenario Summer Winter
Temp ▲6˚c ▲7˚c.
Precip. +10% +30%
CO N l d bl2 ear y ou e
11
Forest management principles
1
)
Basal area just
before thinning
Thinning threshold
Energy
wood
Energy
biomass
a
r
e
a
(
m
2
h
a
-
1 thinningt i g
B
a
s
a
l
a
Basal area just
Remaining basal
area threshold
Dominant height (m)
after thinning
12
Management regimes
Changes in basal area thinning thresholds
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
of land origin ▲•
Undetermined or unknown x
Table 3.3
Form of ice (Fa Fb Fc Fp Fs)
Element Floe size Symbo
l
Pancake ice - 0
Small ice cake; brash ice < 2 m 1
Ice cake 2-20 m 2
Small floe 20-100 m 3
Medium floe 100-500 m 4
Big floe 500 m-2 km 5
Vast floe 2-10 km 6
Giant floe > 10 km 7
Fast ice - 8
Icebergs, growlers or
floebergs
- 9
Undetermined or
unknown
- x
- 5 -
Annex I
Sample ice charts
from
/media/hafis/frodleikur/ice-chart_colour-code-standard.pdf
) storage coefficient of interflow ki; (3) drainage
density d; (4) the fraction of surface runoff from snowmelt; and (5) the recession constant
krec for the decreasing saturated hydraulic conductivity with increasing depth. For the
groundwater flow, adjusted parameters (6–7) are the hydraulic conductivity in the X and Y
direction. The hydraulic conductivity is adjusted in distributed grids unlike
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
A survey on flood risk perception was conducted in the town of Selfoss from May to August 2009 among
the residents aged above 18. The respondents were proposed to draw the boundaries of areas flooded
from the beginning of the 20th century on an orthophotograph of Selfoss at scale 1:10.000. The spatial
representations of the flood area were processed with a regulated grid of 10x10 metres
/media/loftslag/Spatial_perception_of_flood_hazard_in_the_urban_area_of_Selfoss,_Iceland.pdf
and their interactions with sustainable develop-
Figure I.1. Schematic framework representing anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and responses to climate change, and their linkages.
Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses
ment. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and
mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term per-
spective. Topic 6/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
corresponding change with the maximum scenario (corresponding
scenario for largest floods) was only 1.2%.
By 2010–2039 the changes from the reference period were
smaller; with many scenarios the 100-year floods changed less
than 10% from the reference period (Fig. 6). With the minimum
scenarios, floods in 2010–2039 decreased in more sites than in
2070–2099, but the decreases were smaller in magnitude
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
G
u
i
n
e
a
B
a
r
r
i
e
n
to
s
P
a
t
r
i
c
k
D
r
i
s
c
o
l
l
A
n
j
a
W
e
j
s
T
o
mm
y
C
h
a
n
K
a
r
o
l
i
i
n
a
P
i
l
l
i
-
S
i
h
v
o
l
a
J
u
s
s
i
Y
l
h
ä
i
s
i
K
a
r
e
n
L
u
n
d
g
r
e
n
V
ä
i
n
ö
N
u
r
m
i
J
i
a
o
X
i
H
a
n
s
-
P
a
u
l
V
e
l
e
m
a
p
l
e
n
a
r
y
1
(
o
p
e
n
i
n
g
)
X
s
e
s
s
i
o
n
1
.
1
X
s
e
s
s
i
o
n
1
.
2
X
s
e
s
s
i
o
n
1
.
3
X
s
e
s
s
i
o
n
1
/media/loftslag/Guidelines2-for-rapporteurs.pdf