and objective
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
Study area
• Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in
north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part
of Finland
• Climatologically different zones:
• NE:
• between middle- and north-boreal zones
• continental climate
• SW:
• between hemi- and south-boreal zones
• maritime influence
• Past and future monthly precipitation sums in
May-September
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera
the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another was obtained on loan from the Italian Civil Protection Agency. The mobile radar is now situated near the town of Kirkjubæjarklaustur, 80 km from the eruption site in Grímsvötn. IMO staff members monitor the progress of the eruption using
/about-imo/news/nr/2183/
of the lava stream. Radar images from ICG-flight today
show tunnels in Gígjökull increasing in size and continuing the build
up of the cone at the crater. The size of the eruptive crater is 280 x 190
m. Lava splashes are thrown at least a few hundred meters into the air.
Seismic tremor: Tremor levels decreased last night (3 May) and have decreased even
further this morning at around 11:00 GMT
/media/jar/Eyjaf_status_2010-05-04_IES_IMO.pdf
Projects
involving sh
Concise info
Executive
summaries
Downloadable
"Stakeholder
friendly" info
Stakeholder Relevance of the CES Project
Jenny Gode, 31 May 2010
Research programme
"Translators"
F
act
sheets
W
eb
page
Stee
ring
co
m
m
ittee
Visits
W
o
rkshops
R
efe
re
nce
g
ro
up
s
E
x
.
su
m
m
a
rie
s
M
eetings
Stakeholders
Energy companies
Energy authorities
Decision makers
Other stakeholders
/media/ces/Gode_Jenny_CES_2010.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
as the forecast period.
On the other hand, the probability distributions derived using the resampling ensemble
method are in most cases wider than those produced with the normal distribution method,
particularly so for precipitation change. This difference stems from the different treatment of
natural variability:
x In the normal distribution method, all simulations available for the same emission
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf