Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
) Colorado River basin
C) Washington climate change impacts
assessment – Yakima River basin
3a) Hydrology and water management
implications: Columbia River Basin
PCM
Business-as-Usual
scenarios
Columbia River Basin
(Basin Averages)
control (2000-2048)
historical (1950-99)
BAU 3-run average
PCM
Business-As-
Usual
Mean Monthly
Hydrographs
Columbia
River Basin
@ The Dalles,
OR
1 month
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
and Shell became a leader
of the scenario approach to business planning (1970s and 1980s).
First scientific scenarios: Limits to Growth (1972)
First global environmental scenarios: Global Scenario Group (1990s)
Today, scenario development is used in a large variety of different
contexts ranging from political decision-making, to business planning, to
local community management, and to global
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
from direct impact on e.g. infrastructure, agriculture and weather
depending business, as well as indirect effects on politics (e.g. climate
refugees). And last, but not least, we need a public discourse about whether we
are prepared to make the bold choices needed to adapt for a warmer and wetter
future. We need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to new risks.Strong cooperation
/about-imo/news/cooperation-is-a-must-for-adaptation-to-and-mitigation-of-climate-change
a specific set of
goals
– For better or for worse
– For good or for bad reasons
• If you want to make participation a
positive
– A serious business carried out with serious people
– You have to plan a very, very good process
What participatory management is not,
despite what you might read in the literature
NOT Just about creating plans
NOT Just about informing the public
NOT Just about
/media/loftslag/Hare_1_PartINONAM.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
• Interdisciplinary in scope.
– Economics
– Civil Engineering
– Meteorology
– Psychology
– Sociology
Research Agenda
• Government Partners
– NOAA
– USGS
• Corporate Partners
– Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
– Institute for Business and Home Safety
– Federal Alliance for Safe Homes
• Academic Partner Institutions
Economics:
Austin College
UT – Pan American
Texas Tech University
East Carolina
/media/loftslag/FMI_-_Disaster_Mitigation.pdf
variables for the counties
struck by each tornado
• Warning variables: Warning
in effect, lead time, false
alarm ratio
Broad Outlines of Casualty
Analysis
• Location
• Timing
• Warnings
Casualties and Location
Fatalities by Location
43.24.6
9
5.3
4.6
Mobile Homes
Permanent Homes
31.1
Business
Vehicles
School/Church
Outdoors
The Mobile Home Problem
The Mobile Home Problem
• 43% of tornado
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
main IPCC emission scenarios
results on changes in temperature and precipitation in the above region
surrounding Iceland where extracted from the CMIP5 model archives and examined.
The scenarios range from a warm business-as-usual-case (RCP8.5) to an extensive
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), resulting in only modes warming
rates. For the middle of the century, the ensemble
/climatology/iceland/climate-report