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  • 21. RaisanenJouni_CES_2010

    not representative of present or future climate conditions? Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008) 1961- 20081961- 1990 Temperature (°C) P r o b a b i l i t y d e n s i t y -12 4 Simplest case: change in mean climate, with no change in the magnitude of variability If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution (e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently. IPCC (2001 /media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
  • 22. TietavainenHanna_CES_2010

    the observed data sets are smaller in SW than in NE • MMM overestimates precipitation, but is closer to observations in SW than NE barb2right Better observational coverage in SW SW NE p r e c i p i t a t i o n s u m ( m m ) CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010 SWNE • Precipitation trends (mm / 10 yr) in 1961-2000 according to observations and model simulations (MMM) • Including the range /media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
  • 23. Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf

    21 15% 55 26 5% 5546% of world's GDP 2233% of world’s population 10%0%Runoff decreases by Continental U.S. and Alaska All scenarios Top 200 basins Precipitation change per degree T change vs evaporation change per degree T All scenarios Top 200 basins Precipitation change per degree T change vs runoff change per degree T A1B scenario Top 200 basins Precipitation change per Degree T change /media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
  • 24. esa_flyer_new

    EA Analyse A/S and Optensys Energianalys will forecast energy system variables, while SINTEF Energy Research will make assumptions for the energy system in different cases, include new inputs in the EMPS model and carry out simulations. Cl i ma t e Sc e nar i os G ro u p R i s ø St o c h as t i c v a r i a b l e s Clima t e s c e n a r i o NV E S M H I FE I N o r w a y S w e d e n F inla n /media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
  • 25. Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010

    FOREST BIOMASS FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION – POTENTIALS, MANAGEMENT AND RISKS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Ashraful Alam, Antti Kilpeläinen, Seppo Kellomäki School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu F t Cli t d R bl E I t Ri k d Ad t tiu ure Cl ma e an enewa e nergy – mpac s, s s an ap a on Oslo, Norway 2 June, 2010 Contents • Forestry in Finland • Challenges • Objectives /media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
  • 26. VI_2014_001

    regional flood frequency curve or growth curve (qR(D;T )) at each site of interest, after proper rescaling by the so-called index flood, µi(D), of the target site: 10 bQi(D;T ) = µi(D)qR(D;T ); (1) where bQi(D;T ) is the estimated flood quantile, i.e. the T -year flood peak discharge averaged over duration D, for a given site i. The mean of the AMF series for given duration D is used here to define /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
  • 27. VI_2020_004

    2008; Thordarson & Höskuldsson, 2008; Thordarson & Larsen, 2007). Volcanogenic floods (Pagneux et al., 2015), lava flows (Sólnes et al., 2013; T Thordarson & Höskuldsson, 2007), tephra fallout (Gudnason et al., 2017, 2018; Janebo et al., 2016; Larsen, 2002; Moles et al., 2019; Óladóttir et al., 2011), lightning (Behnke et al., 2014; Bennett et al., 2010), pyroclastic density currents (PDCs /media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf
  • 28. AnneFleig_May2010_CES

    activities. Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north-western Europe “ University of Oslo Droughts WTs SummaryRelationsIntroduction Outlook Hydrological drought in NW-Europe: Data 5 6 5 8 6 0 5 5 . 5 5 6 . 0 5 6 . 5 5 7 . 0 5 7 . 5 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 s o u r c e : N a t i o n a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l R e s e a r /media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
  • 29. High resolution precipitation maps for Iceland

    maps for 1971-2000 Daily precipitation maps are available on request and further information on the making of the maps. IMO's contacts for this project are Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson. Reference: Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, T. Jónsson, O. Sigurðsson, H. Björnsson, F. Pálsson and I. Barstad (2007): Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation in Iceland using a linear model /weather/articles/nr/1625
  • 30. Statistical Analysis

    and Chemistry of the Earth, Special Issue: COST Action (Accepted for publication). Jónsdóttir, J. F., Uvo, C. B. & Clarke, R. T. (2008). Filling gaps in measured discharge series with model-generated series. Technical Notes. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 13, 9, 905-909. Jónsdóttir, J. F., Uvo, C. B. & Clarke, R. T. (2008). Trend analysis in Icelandic discharge, temperature and precipitation series /ces/publications/nr/1943

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