not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
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Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
the observed data sets are smaller in SW than in NE
• MMM overestimates precipitation, but is closer to observations in SW than
NE barb2right Better observational coverage in SW
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NE
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CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
SWNE
• Precipitation trends (mm / 10 yr) in 1961-2000 according to observations
and model simulations (MMM)
• Including the range
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
21
15%
55
26
5%
5546% of world's GDP
2233% of world’s population
10%0%Runoff decreases by
Continental U.S. and Alaska
All scenarios Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per degree T change vs
evaporation change per degree T
All scenarios Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per degree T change vs runoff
change per degree T
A1B scenario Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per Degree T change
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
EA Analyse A/S and Optensys
Energianalys will forecast energy system variables, while SINTEF Energy Research will make
assumptions for the energy system in different cases, include new inputs in the EMPS model and
carry out simulations.
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/media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
FOREST BIOMASS FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION –
POTENTIALS, MANAGEMENT AND RISKS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Ashraful Alam, Antti Kilpeläinen, Seppo Kellomäki
School of Forest Sciences,
University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu
F t Cli t d R bl E I t Ri k d Ad t tiu ure Cl ma e an enewa e nergy – mpac s, s s an ap a on
Oslo, Norway
2 June, 2010
Contents
• Forestry in Finland
• Challenges
• Objectives
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
regional flood frequency curve or
growth curve (qR(D;T )) at each site of interest, after proper rescaling by the so-called index
flood, µi(D), of the target site:
10
bQi(D;T ) = µi(D)qR(D;T ); (1)
where bQi(D;T ) is the estimated flood quantile, i.e. the T -year flood peak discharge averaged
over duration D, for a given site i. The mean of the AMF series for given duration D is used
here to define
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
activities.
Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north-western Europe “
University of Oslo Droughts WTs SummaryRelationsIntroduction Outlook
Hydrological drought in NW-Europe: Data
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/media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
maps for 1971-2000
Daily precipitation maps are available on request and further information on the making of the maps. IMO's contacts for this project are Philippe Crochet and Tómas Jóhannesson.
Reference:
Crochet, P., T. Jóhannesson, T. Jónsson, O. Sigurðsson, H. Björnsson, F. Pálsson and I. Barstad (2007): Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation in Iceland using a linear model
/weather/articles/nr/1625
and Chemistry of the Earth, Special Issue: COST Action (Accepted for publication).
Jónsdóttir, J. F., Uvo, C. B. & Clarke, R. T. (2008). Filling gaps in measured discharge series with model-generated series. Technical Notes. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 13, 9, 905-909.
Jónsdóttir, J. F., Uvo, C. B. & Clarke, R. T. (2008). Trend analysis in Icelandic discharge, temperature and precipitation series
/ces/publications/nr/1943