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Results:

• 21. Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS

  on the quantity at hand (strengths and weaknesses in Box 1. The error propagation equation The error propagation equations for the most common operators are (s is the standard deviation): Addition and Subtraction: z ¼ x þ yþ/ or z ¼ x  y/ sz ¼ ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi s2x  þ  s2y  þ/ r Multiplication by an exact number: z /media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf

• 22. Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation

  -scale Category P e r c e n t a g e o f C a t e g o r y F a t a l i t i e s Permanent Homes Casualties and Timing Casualties and Time of Day 150 200 250 I n d e x V a l u e Fatalities 0 50 100 Overnight Morning Early Afternoon Late Afternoon Late Evening I n d e x V a l u e Injuries Nocturnal Tornadoes 7 8 9 10 R a t i o N i g h t t o O t h e r T i m e s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F /media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf

• 23. Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf

  model regional projections. • Development of multiple 50-km regional climate scenarios for use in impacts assessments. • Evaluation of regional model performance over North America. www.narccap.ucar.edu 50-km Grid GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM MM5 X X1 RegCM X1** X CRCM X1** X HADRM X X1 RSM X1 X WRF X X1 Red = run completed Drawbacks of dynamical downscaling • Requires postprocessing for bias /media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf

• 24. RaisanenJouni_CES_2010

  – observed and simulated changes in global mean temperature • Pattern scaling approach – changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be proportional to the change in global mean temperature Regression coefficients of winter mean temperature: how much is climate on the average simulated to change per 1°C of global warming? X X Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature /media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf

• 25. TietavainenHanna_CES_2010

  and objective CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010 Study area • Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part of Finland • Climatologically different zones: • NE: • between middle- and north-boreal zones • continental climate • SW: • between hemi- and south-boreal zones • maritime influence • Past and future monthly precipitation sums in May-September /media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf

• 26. Ash measurements

  in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km. During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another /about-imo/news/nr/2183

• 27. D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs

  climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES simulations 15 4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18 5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24 5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24 5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)? 28 6. Conclusions 34 References /media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf

• 28. VI_2013_008

  of the analogue method is introduced. In Section 3 hydrological and me- teorological data used in the analysis are presented. Section 4 describes the different strategies considered for implementing the method and Section 5 presents some results. Some concluding remarks are made in Section 6. 2 The analogue method Let X(t) be a state of a dynamical system at time t, known through the observation of k variables /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf

• 29. Vertical displacement in the Bárðarbunga caldera

  September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge. The first two weeks as an example Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015 The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment /earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/

• 30. Vertical displacement in the Bárðarbunga caldera

  September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge. The first two weeks as an example Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015 The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment /earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera