model
regional projections.
• Development of multiple 50-km regional
climate scenarios for use in impacts
assessments.
• Evaluation of regional model performance
over North America.
www.narccap.ucar.edu
50-km Grid
GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM
MM5 X X1
RegCM X1** X
CRCM X1** X
HADRM X X1
RSM X1 X
WRF X X1
Red = run completed
Drawbacks of dynamical downscaling
• Requires postprocessing for bias
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
and objective
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
Study area
• Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in
north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part
of Finland
• Climatologically different zones:
• NE:
• between middle- and north-boreal zones
• continental climate
• SW:
• between hemi- and south-boreal zones
• maritime influence
• Past and future monthly precipitation sums in
May-September
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera
the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another was obtained on loan from the Italian Civil Protection Agency. The mobile radar is now situated near the town of Kirkjubæjarklaustur, 80 km from the eruption site in Grímsvötn. IMO staff members monitor the progress of the eruption using
/about-imo/news/nr/2183/
of the lava stream. Radar images from ICG-flight today
show tunnels in Gígjökull increasing in size and continuing the build
up of the cone at the crater. The size of the eruptive crater is 280 x 190
m. Lava splashes are thrown at least a few hundred meters into the air.
Seismic tremor: Tremor levels decreased last night (3 May) and have decreased even
further this morning at around 11:00 GMT
/media/jar/Eyjaf_status_2010-05-04_IES_IMO.pdf
Projects
involving sh
Concise info
Executive
summaries
Downloadable
"Stakeholder
friendly" info
Stakeholder Relevance of the CES Project
Jenny Gode, 31 May 2010
Research programme
"Translators"
F
act
sheets
W
eb
page
Stee
ring
co
m
m
ittee
Visits
W
o
rkshops
R
efe
re
nce
g
ro
up
s
E
x
.
su
m
m
a
rie
s
M
eetings
Stakeholders
Energy companies
Energy authorities
Decision makers
Other stakeholders
/media/ces/Gode_Jenny_CES_2010.pdf