- nitrate reduction in underground medium medium large large large
Model technical uncertainty
- numerical approximation small small medium small
- bugs in software medium medium small
SUM:
Importance Type of uncertainty
Error propagation
Box 1 Error propagation rules using standard deviation (σ )
Addition and Subtraction: z = x + y + .. or z = x - y - ..
..)()( 22 ++= yxz σσσ
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
24 July 2010
This manuscript was handled by K.
Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief, with the
assistance of Ercan Kahya, Associate Editor
Keywords:
Climate change
Flood
Hydrological modelling
Flood inundation area
Hydraulic modelling
Finland
s u m m a r y
This paper provides a general overview of changes in flooding caused by climate change in Finland for the
periods 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. Changes
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
were carried out to obtain the flow and
sliding parameters for Hoffellsjökull that resulted in a good
simulation of the observed 20th century evolution of the
glacier geometry. The obtained values for the rate factor
and the sliding parameter are A= 4.6× 10−15 s−1 kPa−3 and
C = 10× 10−15 m a−1 Pa−3, respectively.
The ice divide is kept at a fixed location in the model com-
putations presented here
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
14 0 1 2 3 8 12
15 0 1 2 3 8 12
16 0 1 2 4 8 12
17 0 1 2 4 8 12
18 0 1 2 4 8 12
19 0 1 2 4 8 13
20 0 1 2 4 8 13
21 0 2 3 5 9 13
22 1 2 3 5 9 13
23 1 2 3 4 9 13
MEAN 1 2 2 4 8 13
10
AE
R
OD
R
OM
E
CLIM
A
T
OLOGICA
L
SUMMA
R
Y
-
T
ABL
E
D
AE
R
OD
R
OME
:BIK
F
-
KEFL
A
VÍ
K
/K
efl
avi
k
PERIO
D
O
F
RECORD
:2001–201
0
L
A
TITUDE
:6
3
59’06"
N
LONGITUDE
:2
2
36’20"
W
ELE
V
A
TIO
N
AB
O
V
E
MSL
:5
2
/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010
and its relation to extreme hot summer associated with polar jet,
summer AO and blocking - Y Tachibana
Group Discussion
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee Break
11:00 – 12:00
11:00 – 11:20
11:20 – 11:40
11:40 – 12:00
12:00 – 12:30
Potential Arctic / Mid-Latitude Linkages – Large Scale (Chair: Jim Overland)
Large scale linkages between fall
/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
and corrected data
-5 0 5 10 15
1
.
0
1
.
5
2
.
0
2
.
5
3
.
0
3
.
5
Temperature,°C
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
,
m
m
/
d
a
y
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
JulAug
Sep
OctNov
Dec
Year
obs ALUKSNE
DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
mod DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
JanFeb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
AugSep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Year
Jan
Feb
ar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec ear
After the
correction all 3
climate models
agree with
observed data
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
for
behavioural responses to policy
• Psychological models of behaviour change (e.g., TPB)
Ajzen & Fishbein (1991)
Subjective
norm
Specific
attitudes
Perceived
behavioural
control
Intention Behaviour
Normative
beliefs
Behavioural
beliefs
Control
beliefs
P
O
L
I
C
Y
(3) Factors important for
behavioural responses to policy cont.
• Cost-minimization principle (Loukopoulos et al. 2006)
• Barriers
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_2-Acceptability-of-policy.pdf
the com-
plexity of the hydrological processes through modelling, but its application is usually limited to
the short-range. Although the results demonstrated a great potential for this method, its success-
ful application in real-time will strongly depend on the quality and availability of streamflow
observations, which can be poor or simply missing during periods of variable durations, e.g
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf