the observed data sets are smaller in SW than in NE
• MMM overestimates precipitation, but is closer to observations in SW than
NE barb2right Better observational coverage in SW
SW
NE
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t
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n
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m
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CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
SWNE
• Precipitation trends (mm / 10 yr) in 1961-2000 according to observations
and model simulations (MMM)
• Including the range
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
) was used in cases where non-linear models
were fitted to the data set. This method computes numerical derivatives in its search for
minimum of the sum of squared log-residuals:
{ }210 ,...),()(log∑ −
i
iii rMfPGX ,
where PGX stands for either PGV or PGA and the term f(M,r,...) denotes the model in question
as a function of magnitude and epicentral distance that approximates log10(PGX).
4
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
and pillow lava with subaerial lava on Heimaey and Surtsey. Heimaey is composed
primarily of materials from previous eruptions (as well as some non-consolidated sediments)
demonstrating the vulnerability of the entire island during future eruptions (Figure 3).
15
Figure 2: Bathymetry and topography of the Vestmannaeyjar volcanic system (Icelandic
Coast Guard Hydrographic Department & University
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_011_en.pdf
are: mathematical system models, non-linear
behaviour, holistic approach
A history of complexity science
And the relevant bit for today...
Complex Adaptive System
Endogenous-exogenous
Self-organisation
Emergent properties
Adaptive behaviour
Feedbacks
Methods and tools to tackle complex problems
relevant to scenarios
Methods:
1. Multi-scale – Focus on cross-scale interactions
2. Participation - Social learning
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
2050s 2080s
C
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i
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r
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(
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10%
50%
90%
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(
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Each bar
shows
range over
whole UK
spatial
area
June 2010 13
Is the impact similar over the
whole UK?
• Changes in the summer minimum rating, i.e.
worst-case conditions – max temperature:
Rating at baseline period 1961
/media/ces/Cradden_Lucy_CES_2010.pdf
.............................. 49
Figure 3.19. The zigzag like structure of fault H2-05 in the Hengill area. ......................... 50
Figure 3.20. Fault H-02 in the Hengill area ....................................................................... 50
Figure 3.21. Seismicity and mapped faults in boxes G and I, Ölfus and Flói districts. ...... 52
Figure 3.22. Rake angle distribution for fault segments G-15, G-16
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_003rs.pdf
such as ECMWF. I would like to express my appreciation of the ECMWF Council voting unanimously in favour of Iceland’s accession to the ECMWF Convention on 24 February 2011."
Árni Snorrason: “Since Iceland became a Co-operating State in December 1980, the Icelandic Meteorological Office has been able to make good use of ECMWF’s products, in particular to improve our forecasts. Above all, the Centre’s
/about-imo/news/nr/2142