and glaciers. The former trend is mainly visible in the
Westfjords, an area in northwest Iceland, in the winter (see Figure 8a and 8b) and in northeast
Iceland in the summer, especially east of Akureyri in the RCP8.5 scenario (see Figures 8c
and d). The latter trend is most clearly seen during summer and in cases with the RCM RCA4
with RCP8.5.
Extreme temperature trends
In a previous section we
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2017/VI_2017_009.pdf
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Ismael Vera Rodriguez, Marius P. Isken, Torsten Dahm, Oliver D. Lamb, Sin‐Mei Wu, Sigríður Kristjánsdóttir, Kristín
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Reykjavík, 139 pp.
Paterson, W.S.B. 1994. The Physics of
Glaciers (Third Edition). Pergamon. 480
pp.
Vogt, P.R., G.L. Johnson and L. Kristjánsson
1980. Morphology and magnetic anomalies
north of Iceland. J. of Geophysics 47, 67-80.
Walker, G.P.L. 1974. Eruptive mechanisms in
Iceland. In L. Kristjánsson, ed. Geodynamics
of Iceland and the North Atlantic Area. D.
Reidel, Dordrecht
/media/jar/Jokull-guidlines.pdf
by a flux of charged particles from the sun. Increased variations of the field are indicative of increased auroral activity.
RH-LRV: Leirvogur Magnetic Observatory
Figure 3. Measurements during the past 24 hours from Leirvogur. Three components of the magnetic field are shown; vertical component (Z); horizontal component (H); and the declination (D). The graph is from
/weather/articles/nr/2549
Juhola (FIN)
Sigrun Karlsdottir (IS)
Halldór Björnsson (IS)
Richard Klein (S)
Rik Leemans (NL)
Henrik Madsen (DK)
Anil Markandya (E)
Jørgen E. Olesen (DK)
Adrian Perrels (FIN)
John Porter (DK)
Markku Rummukainen (S)
Hans von Storch (D)
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2nd Announcement and Call for Papers 2nd Announcement and Call for Papers
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/media/loftslag/myndasafn/Nordic_Adaption_14_2cir.pdf
Results
W
i
n
t
e
r
t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
Max snow depth
Trend slope
Number of snow days
Period II
P
e
r
i
o
d
I
I
I
Max snow depth Number of snow days
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Correlation analysis (1961-08)
138 mutual stations
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Correlation with
winter
temperature
Correlation with
winter
precipitation
In warmer regions both snow
parameters
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
is ice flux and b is mass balance. For (small) changes
in glacier geometry with respect to a datum (often steady) state, perturbations in ice thickness,
flux and mass balance will satisfy
¶(Dh)
¶t
+
¶(Dq)
¶x
= Db or
¶(Dh)
¶t
+~ (D~q) = Db : (2)
Changes in mass balance are the driving factor of glacier changes in climate change simu-
lations. If the datum glacier is initially comparatively close
/media/ces/ces-glacier-scaling-memo2009-01.pdf
Delta Change Method
(correction of observed precipitation)
Transformation of precipitation
cont
fut
obsfut M
M
PP =
Observeret n dbør
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99
Dato
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret
Skal ring af e
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4
- - - -
t
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret D lta Change
Critical assumption:
Future dynamics = present dynamics
No change in number
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf