Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Ministry of Climate and Energy
NONAM PhD course, Copenhagen, August 22-26, 2011
Uncertainty – terminology,
concepts, tools and importance
in climate change adaptation
Jens Christian Refsgaard
Acknowledgements
• Torben O. Sonnenborg, GEUS
• Hans Jørgen Henriksen, GEUS
• Anker Lajer Højberg, GEUS
• Peter van der Keur, GEUS
• Lieke van Roosmalen, Flinders
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
erations
which will be
done to protectagainst th e
phenome na a nd
its
conse quenc es
The
consequenc es
of the
phenom ena to
the distribution
network
T he
con seque nc
es of the
phe nom ena
to the
pow er
plant
The conse quence s
of the phe nomena
to e nerg y sourc e
and its usability
Probability
according
to IP CC
2007
Phe nom ena acco rding
to regional scena rio
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
· D63 · D81 · H41
1 Introduction
Building on the hypothesis that the State’s decisions consist of the behavior of agents who
compose the government, the application of economic tools to political science introduced
by Buchanan and Tullock (1962) and Olson (1965) has emphasized that collectively-optimal
actions may not maximize individual utility. However, empirical evidence has shown that not
all
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
Journal of Environmental Management 88
Heid
, Øste
d
e
A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a
Human dependence on water leaves us vulnerable to
climate change, flood and drought hazards, and poverty
dynamic element of vulnerable groups and their relation-
ship to water resources, and to represent the decisions
/media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf
the quality of the environment in prudent and rational
use of natural resources, and to be based on the precautionary
principle’’ (EC, 2000). As the precautionary principle aims to
protect humans and the environment against uncertain risks by
means of pre-damage control (anticipatory measures) it can
not be implemented without incorporating uncertainty assess-
ments into the decision making process
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
efficient to carry out the rest of the
risk-management process and plan development in-
house. The researcher, surprised at this suggested
change of plans, reacted strongly against the
suggestion. She argued that such a change would be
inefficient and that it contradicted a previous
statement by the project manager that using a
participatory process would allow the participants
to do the work and make
/media/loftslag/Moellenkampetal_etal-2010.pdf
separate from other maintenance. Since implications of climate change may vary
across locations the preventive responses need to be flexible in order to enable least cost
solutions. As a consequence asset management tools (including indicators for the technical state
of road sections) will be of great use and need to be adapted to be able to include the implications
of climate change (Meyer et
/media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf
) it was decided to answer the
questions against the backdrop of the national level of the road transport system. Furthermore,
it was acknowledged that for road infrastructure four stages of planning and policy can be
distinguished:
1. Design, location and overall network coherence
2. Construction (technical specifications, exact location and qualities)
3. Maintenance (technical
/media/vedurstofan/NONAM_1st_workshop_summary_v3.pdf
The ISC data (and how to get it)
James Harris¹, Dmitry Storchak²
¹ International Seismological Centre (ISC), Senior System and Database Administrator
² International Seismological Centre, Director
The ISC data distribution has evolved over many years from print only, through CDs, the first simple
flat file search on the web (1998), to the many and varied search tools currently available
/media/norsem/norsem_harris.pdf
to be stopped or
appropriate gas masks have to be used.
See http://www.vinnueftirlit.is/um-vinnueftirlitid/frettir/nr/1170
General recommendations:
Individuals with pre-existing pulmonary and heart diseases are encouraged to have their
medications readily available.
Breathe with your nose as much as possible and avoid physical exercise outdoors during
heavy pollution as this will reduce
/media/jar/UST_table_SO2_27112014-en.pdf