less than
10/10
9+
10/10 10
Undetermined or unknown x
Concentration (C)
C – Total concentration of ice in the area, reported in tenths (see symbols in table 3.1).
Note: Ranges of concentration may be reported.
Ca Cb Cc – Partial concentrations of thickest (Ca), second thickest (Cb) and third thickest (Cc)
ice, in tenths.
Note: Less than 1/10 is not reported. 10/10 of one stage of development
/media/hafis/frodleikur/ice-chart_colour-code-standard.pdf
Denmark, DK). Participatory planning processes - Group model building
10:00 p9 Simo Haanpää (Aalto University, Fi). Ilmasto-opas.fi (ClimateGuide.fi) web portal - a new tool for managing climate change in Finnish municipalities
10:30 tea/coffee break
11:00 break out sessions : Thursday cases revisited
12:00 - 13:00 lunch
13:00 p10
Helle Katrine Andersen (DANVA, Dk). DANVA CC adaptation plan
/nonam/workshop/program/
to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
L
P
T
2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
Figure 8. Stations ranked according to their average CC for the 20 highest rainfall daily events.
................................................................................................................................................... 33
Figure 9. Ranked values of the 50 highest 24-hour accumulated precipitation events plotted
against ranked values of the 50 highest daily precipitation
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
tg
ui
da
n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
n
u
n
de
rs
ta
nd
in
g,
creat
ed
th
e
bas
is
fo
rth
e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
m
ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
an
d
Le
en
tv
aa
r
200
3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
et
al
.(
200
4)
21
.Explici
tconsideratio
n
o
funcertaint
y
(relate
dt
o
CC
impacts
)
Uncertaintie
s
ar
e
no
t
glosse
d
ove
r
bu
tcommunicate
d
(in
fina
lreports
,orally
)
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
Researcher
s
ar
e
willin
g
to
tal
k
wit
h
stakeholder
s
abou
tuncertaintie
s
Diet
z
et
al
.(
200
3),
Brugnac
h
et
al
.(
200
8)
22
.Broa
d
communicatio
n
(on
CC
impacts
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
erations
which will be
done to protect
against th e
phenome na a nd
its
conse quenc es
The
consequenc es
of the
phenom ena to
the distribution
network
T he
con seque nc
es of the
phe nom ena
to the
pow er
plant
The conse quence s
of the phe nomena
to e nerg y sourc e
and its usability
Probability
according
to IP CC
2007
Phe nom ena acco rding
to regional scena rio
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf
Delta Change Method
(correction of observed precipitation)
Transformation of precipitation
cont
fut
obsfut M
M
PP =
Observeret n dbør
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99
Dato
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret
Skal ring af e
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4
- - - -
t
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret D lta Change
Critical assumption:
Future dynamics = present dynamics
No change in number
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf