AVAILABLE FROM:
http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/~jaraisan/CES_D2.3/CES_D2.3.html
2
Table of Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 22. Model simulations 4
3. Methods used for deriving probabilistic climate change forecasts 7
3.1 Resampling and variance correction 9
3.2 Relationship between local and large-scale climate changes in ENSEMBLES
simulations 10
3.3 Comparison of large-scale
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
drainage
works, and land-cover and land-use change.
Two other (sometimes indistinguishable)
challenges to stationarity have been exter-
nally forced, natural climate changes and
low-frequency, internal variability (e.g., the
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) enhanced
by the slow dynamics of the oceans and ice
sheets (2, 3). Planners have tools to adjust
their analyses for known human distur-
bances
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
series, of which about 28,000 are from European
studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2x2 boxes show the total number of data
series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM),
Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
1
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change based on
global climate model simulations (CES deliverable 2.2)
Jouni Räisänen1
Kimmo Ruosteenoja2
19 December 2008
1 Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
Email: jouni.raisanen@helsinki.fi
2 Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Email
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy:
Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
Oslo
June, 1, 2010
Runoff projections and impacts on water
resources
Outline of this talk
1) Projected runoff changes over the next
century – the global and continental
picture
2) Downscaling to the regional
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
at 67 sites: (a) 100-year floods with the Gumbel
distribution and (b) average discharge.
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0
−4
0
−2
0
0
20
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Scenario number
Change in 100a Flood (%
)
Fig. 5. Box plot (median, 25 and 75 percentiles, average [diamond], max and min) of changes in 100-year floods in 2070–2099 at the 67 sites with different scenarios.
Numbering of the scenarios
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
The
plume has also been observed on IMO's weather radar at 5.2-5.4 km
height between 13:05 and 14:00 GMT.
Heading: East-south-east to south-east from the eruption site. Plume track clearly
visible up to 300-400 km distance from the eruption site on a noaa
satellite image at 13:13 GMT.
Colour: Observation from web cameras and from pilots in ICG-flight: Dark
grey ash plume observed over the eruptive
/media/jar/Eyjaf_status_2010-05-04_IES_IMO.pdf