series, of which about 28,000 are from European
studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of data
series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM),
Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
Denmark, DK). Participatory planning processes - Group model building
10:00 p9 Simo Haanpää (Aalto University, Fi). Ilmasto-opas.fi (ClimateGuide.fi) web portal - a new tool for managing climate change in Finnish municipalities
10:30 tea/coffee break
11:00 break out sessions : Thursday cases revisited
12:00 - 13:00 lunch
13:00 p10
Helle Katrine Andersen (DANVA, Dk). DANVA CC adaptation plan
/nonam/workshop/program/
to c. 10% increase
Uncertainty related to choice of GCM
• Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990)
in Sweden
T2m Precipitation Wind speed
Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM
Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations
An example of CC in the next few decades
2011-2040
vs
1961-1990
Why are differences between ensemble
members so large?
Winter (DJF)
M
S
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P
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2
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
a probability of an
adverse event occurring and a measure of the
associated event. Larger consequence and larger
probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk =
Probability x Damage)
Conclusions – Part 1
Terminology
• Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others –
and be specific defining the terminology you use
Concepts
• Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
-scale Category
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Permanent Homes
Casualties and Timing
Casualties and Time of Day
150
200
250
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V
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Fatalities
0
50
100
Overnight Morning Early Afternoon Late Afternoon Late Evening
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Injuries
Nocturnal Tornadoes
7
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10
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/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
model
regional projections.
• Development of multiple 50-km regional
climate scenarios for use in impacts
assessments.
• Evaluation of regional model performance
over North America.
www.narccap.ucar.edu
50-km Grid
GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM
MM5 X X1
RegCM X1** X
CRCM X1** X
HADRM X X1
RSM X1 X
WRF X X1
Red = run completed
Drawbacks of dynamical downscaling
• Requires postprocessing for bias
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
and objective
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
Study area
• Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in
north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part
of Finland
• Climatologically different zones:
• NE:
• between middle- and north-boreal zones
• continental climate
• SW:
• between hemi- and south-boreal zones
• maritime influence
• Past and future monthly precipitation sums in
May-September
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf