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  • 31. IPPC-2007-ar4_syr

    series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa /media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
  • 32. Program

    Denmark, DK). Participatory planning processes - Group model building 10:00 p9 Simo Haanpää (Aalto University, Fi). Ilmasto-opas.fi (ClimateGuide.fi) web portal - a new tool for managing climate change in Finnish municipalities 10:30 tea/coffee break 11:00 break out sessions : Thursday cases revisited 12:00 - 13:00 lunch 13:00 p10 Helle Katrine Andersen (DANVA, Dk). DANVA CC adaptation plan /nonam/workshop/program/
  • 33. Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010

    to c. 10% increase Uncertainty related to choice of GCM • Changing seasonality (2021-2050 vs 1961-1990) in Sweden T2m Precipitation Wind speed Colored lines represent averages over RCMs forced by the same GCM Gray field is max/min of all RCM simulations An example of CC in the next few decades 2011-2040 vs 1961-1990 Why are differences between ensemble members so large? Winter (DJF) M S L P T 2 /media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
  • 34. Refsgaard_2-uncertainty

    a probability of an adverse event occurring and a measure of the associated event. Larger consequence and larger probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk = Probability x Damage) Conclusions – Part 1 Terminology • Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others – and be specific defining the terminology you use Concepts • Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire /media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
  • 35. Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation

    -scale Category P e r c e n t a g e o f C a t e g o r y F a t a l i t i e s Permanent Homes Casualties and Timing Casualties and Time of Day 150 200 250 I n d e x V a l u e Fatalities 0 50 100 Overnight Morning Early Afternoon Late Afternoon Late Evening I n d e x V a l u e Injuries Nocturnal Tornadoes 7 8 9 10 R a t i o N i g h t t o O t h e r T i m e s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F /media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
  • 36. Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf

    model regional projections. • Development of multiple 50-km regional climate scenarios for use in impacts assessments. • Evaluation of regional model performance over North America. www.narccap.ucar.edu 50-km Grid GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM MM5 X X1 RegCM X1** X CRCM X1** X HADRM X X1 RSM X1 X WRF X X1 Red = run completed Drawbacks of dynamical downscaling • Requires postprocessing for bias /media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
  • 37. RaisanenJouni_CES_2010

    – observed and simulated changes in global mean temperature • Pattern scaling approach – changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be proportional to the change in global mean temperature Regression coefficients of winter mean temperature: how much is climate on the average simulated to change per 1°C of global warming? X X Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature /media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
  • 38. TietavainenHanna_CES_2010

    and objective CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010 Study area • Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part of Finland • Climatologically different zones: • NE: • between middle- and north-boreal zones • continental climate • SW: • between hemi- and south-boreal zones • maritime influence • Past and future monthly precipitation sums in May-September /media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
  • 39. Ash measurements

    in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km. During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another /about-imo/news/nr/2183
  • 40. D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs

    climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES simulations 15 4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18 5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24 5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24 5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)? 28 6. Conclusions 34 References /media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf

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