Updated 31. January at 16:00 UTC

Severe weather has affected the entire Reykjanes Peninsula since yesterday. According to the forecasts, weather in the coming days may impact the monitoring and the response time in case of a a magma intrusion or eruption occurs. Strong winds, sleet, and snow could interfere with seismic measurements and reduce the accuracy of GPS monitoring of ground uplift.

Updated 17. January 14:00 UTC

Seismic activity continues to increase near Grjótárvatn. So far in January, nearly 100 earthquakes above M1.0 have been recorded. This is comparable to the total number of earthquakes in December 2024, which was the highest monthly count ever recorded in the area.

A strong earthquake swarm began shortly after 6:00 UTC today in the northwestern part of the Bárðarbunga caldera. Approximately 130 earthquakes have been recorded since the swarm began, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.1 at 8:05 UTC.

Additionally, 17 other earthquakes with a magnitude of 3 or higher were detected, including at least two measuring magnitude 4 or above. These estimates may change as analysis of the events is ongoing.

In recent days, a gradual increase in seismic tremor has been recorded on the Grímsfjall seismometer, suggesting that a glacial outburst flood has begun from Grímsvötn. These floods emerge from the base of Skeiðarárjökull glacier, flowing into the Gígjukvísl river. Typically, these glacial outburst floods increase gradually, and it can take a few days for the first signs of floodwater to be detected at the hydrological station in Gígjukvísl river and an additional few days before peak discharge is reached. With precipitation in southeast Iceland in the past days, and more expected in the coming days, the identification of the initial signs of the flood In Gígjukvísl could prove to be challenging.