Hazard map

Issued 25 February 2025. Valid until 15:00, 4 March 2025 barring any developments

Due to the current eruption the hazard level has increased in the areas.

The map shows assessment of hazard currently presented as well as hazards which could occur with short warning. The hazard assessment is only done for selected zones but might also be present beyond those.

The colour of the zones represents the overall hazard within those zones. A hazard which is rated greater within a zone is written in bold letters in the list below.

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What to expect in the next volcanic eruption?

Where it could happen and with which warning time

The most likely scenario is that magma will break through the surface between Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell, as occurred in six of the last seven eruptions since the end of 2023. The eruptive fissure may then propagate towards the NE or/and the SW over several kms.  These eruptions might occur with very little, if no, warning.

However, there is nothing in the monitoring data that rules out an eruption occurring near or south of Hagafell, as was the case for the eruption which occurred in January 2024. The warning time for an eruption originating at Hagafell would be longer, around 1 to 5 hours. The longer warning time depends on how far south the magma breaks through before reaching the surface. Approximately 4.5 hours passed from the first signs on January 14th until the eruption began. Increased seismic activity is likely if the magma takes this path.

Main hazards in case of an eruption:

• Eruptive fissure opening: Opening of eruptive fissure could be a very fast process reaching few kms in less than one hour. In previous events, eruptive fissures continued propagating between 40 minutes up to 7 hours, and reached lengths between 1.7 to 6 km.
• Lava flow: Lava could reach Grindavíkurvegur or Svartsengi in less than 1.5 hours.
• Gas pollution: A strong initial phase in an unfavorable wind direction could pose a danger due to gas pollution within a radius of up to 1 km.
• Explosive activity: Could occur if lava flows over ponds or comes into contact with groundwater.

In the case of eruption occurring near and/or south of Hagafell,  the same hazards listed above would apply, but additional hazards include:

• Lava flow: lava could reach Nesvegur and Suðurstrandavegur within 1.5 hours and potentially block all escape routes from Grindavík in about 6 hours.
• Lava reaching the sea: Lava could reach the sea east of Grindavík in 1.5 to 3 hours. This could create localized hazards due to the rapid cooling of the lava. Within a 200-meter radius of the point where lava enters the sea, highly dangerous conditions could develop.
• Fault movements: A magma intrusion south of Hagafell could cause movements in Grindavík and potentially affect fault fillings.