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Situation on the Reykjanes Peninsula

Land uplift and magma accumulation continue

30.9.2026

Updated 30 September 2026

• Slow ground uplift continues at Svartsengi

• Seismic activity remains low

• A new magma intrusion, potentially leading to an eruption along the Sundhnúkur crater row, remains the most likely scenario

• The updated hazard assessment takes account of fracture repairs in Grindavík

Deformation measurements show continued ground uplift in the Svartsengi area. Approximately four centimetres of uplift have been measured over the past three months, with the rate remaining relatively steady throughout this period.

The uplift indicates that pressure is still building at a depth of several kilometres.

The InSAR image above shows continued ground uplift at Svartsengi between 20 July and 13 September 2026. InSAR uses comparisons of satellite radar images to measure ground deformation. The black outlines mark lava fields formed during previous eruptions along the Sundhnúkur crater row and at Fagradalsfjall.

The image was produced using data from the TerraSAR-X satellite. The German Aerospace Center (DLR) provided the data through the GEO-GSNL initiative, supported by CEOS, an international forum for satellite-based Earth observation.

Seismic activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains low. Only a few earthquakes have been detected within the dike over the past two weeks, most of them very small.

Activity elsewhere on the Reykjanes Peninsula has also been low in recent days and weeks.

As long as ground uplift continues, the most likely scenario is a magma intrusion from Svartsengi towards the Sundhnúkur crater row, potentially leading to an eruption.

It is not possible to say when such an event might occur. The longer the interval since the last event, the greater the uncertainty about the timing of the next one. A short warning time must still be expected, as with previous eruptions along the Sundhnúkur crater row.

A new hazard assessment takes effect on 30 September. The hazard categories for the main areas remain unchanged. Grindavík remains in the considerable hazard category and Svartsengi in the moderate hazard category.

The hazard weighting for ground collapse into fractures in Grindavík has been reassessed to account for work carried out to fill fractures in the town. This lowers the calculated overall hazard score for Grindavík from 4.14 to 4.02. However, the hazard category remains unchanged, with the overall hazard still assessed as considerable (orange).

The Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard assessment draws on various datasets that are continually updated. The updated assessment incorporates new data on fracture repairs in Grindavík. The data were provided by ÍSOR and the engineering consultancy EFLA, which supervised the repair work. According to the risk assessment, the municipality of Grindavík is responsible for fracture repairs. The repairs reduce the risk of ground collapse into fractures within the town boundaries, but do not affect the assessment of hazards associated with possible fracture movements during the next event.

The maps below show how the hazard weighting for ground collapse into fractures has changed to account for fracture repairs in Grindavík.

Hazard weighting for ground collapse into fractures in Grindavík before the assessment was updated (left) and after fracture repairs were taken into account (right).

The overall hazard assessment map and maps showing the hazard weighting for each of the seven hazard components are available on the hazard assessment maps page.

Magma accumulation can continue for a long time

There is no evidence that the eruptive episode along the Sundhnúkur crater row is coming to an end. The Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic system remains at alert level 2, “Substantially increased activity” (orange).

Before the eruptive episode can be declared over, monitoring data must show clear evidence of this over an extended period.

The Volcano Alert Level System (VALS) is used by the Icelandic Meteorological Office to communicate information about activity in Iceland's volcanic systems.

The figure below shows the signs required before the alert level can be lowered. Once the volcanic system has been returned to alert level 0, the eruptive episode can be considered over.

Even if magma accumulation stops for several months, it may resume beneath Svartsengi. Eruptive episodes on the Reykjanes Peninsula can last for decades or centuries, with intervals between individual events. A long interval between eruptions therefore does not indicate that activity has ended.

Updated 15 September 2026

Land uplift and magma accumulation continue

• Slow uplift continues at Svartsengi.
• Seismic activity remains low.
• The hazard assessment remains unchanged.

Deformation measurements continue to show uplift in the Svartsengi area. Over the past three months, the land has risen by approximately five centimetres.

The uplift indicates that pressure continues to build at a depth of several kilometres.

As long as uplift continues, the most likely scenario remains that a magma intrusion will propagate from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúkur crater row. This could lead to an eruption.

It is not possible to predict when such an event might occur. As more time passes since the last event, uncertainty about the timing of the next event increases. A short lead time must still be expected, as was the case before previous eruptions along the Sundhnúkur crater row.

Time series from the SKSH GPS station show horizontal and vertical displacements from late June to September 2026. The vertical displacement shows that uplift is continuing and indicates ongoing magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi.

Seismic activity

Seismic activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains low. However, there has recently been a slight increase in the number of small earthquakes, including within the magma intrusion. The depth of the earthquakes has changed little.

Hazard assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 30 September.

Updated 18 August 2026

• Land uplift at Svartsengi continues at a slow but steady rate
• Seismic activity remains low
• The hazard assessment remains unchanged

Land uplift and magma accumulation are continuing at Svartsengi. The development remains slow but steady. The latest model calculations indicate that approximately 29.1 million cubic metres of magma have accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the beginning of the last eruption in July 2025. The uncertainty range is between 28.3 and 29.9 million cubic metres.

As magma continues to accumulate and pressure increases within the system, the most likely scenario is that a magma intrusion will propagate from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúkur crater row. This could lead to a volcanic eruption. As before, the warning time could be short. Previous eruptions have had warning times ranging from approximately 20 minutes to just over four hours.

Model calculations indicate that the volume change beneath Svartsengi between 17 July 2025 and 16 August 2026 is approximately 29.1 million cubic metres. The uncertainty range is between 28.3 and 29.9 million cubic metres. The estimate is based on GNSS measurements and InSAR data. The black lines show the 95% uncertainty interval.

Seismic activity

Seismic activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains low.

Hazard assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 30 September.

Updated 21 July 2026

• Uplift at Svartsengi continues at a slow but steady rate
• Seismic activity remains low
• The hazard assessment is unchanged

Uplift and magma accumulation continue at Svartsengi, with measurements showing that the development remains slow but steady. The latest model calculations indicate that magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi since the start of the last eruption, on 16 July 2025, is estimated at 28.3 million cubic metres, with an uncertainty range of 27.5 to 29.1 million cubic metres.

As magma continues to accumulate and pressure within the system increases, the most likely scenario is that a magma intrusion will propagate from Svartsengi towards the Sundhnúkur crater row, potentially leading to an eruption. As before, only a short warning period should be expected. In previous events, the warning time has ranged from 20 minutes to just over four hours.

Model calculations indicate that the volume change beneath Svartsengi is between 27.5 and 29.1 million cubic metres. The estimate is based on GNSS measurements and InSAR data. The black lines show the 95% uncertainty interval.

Seismic activity

Seismic activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains low.

Hazard assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 30 September.

• Uplift beneath Svartsengi continues at a steady rate
• Continued slow magma accumulation, likely ending in a new dike intrusion and possibly an eruption remains the most likely scenario
• Hazard assessment unchanged, validity extended until 30 September

Ground deformation

Magma accumulation and ground uplift continue beneath Svartsengi. The average rate of magma accumulation over the past few weeks has remained steady.

The most likely scenario remains continued slow magma accumulation, eventually leading to a new dike intrusion and possibly a volcanic eruption.

Seismic Activity

Earthquake activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains relatively low and is similar to previous weeks. No significant changes in seismic activity have been observed in recent weeks.

Hazard Assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged, and its validity has been extended until 30 September.

Previous updates on the activity at Svartsengi.