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Situation on the Reykjanes Peninsula

Uplift at Svartsengi continues at a steady rate

3.7.2026

Updated 21 July 2026

• Uplift at Svartsengi continues at a slow but steady rate
• Seismic activity remains low
• The hazard assessment is unchanged

Uplift and magma accumulation continue at Svartsengi, with measurements showing that the development remains slow but steady. The latest model calculations indicate that magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi since the start of the last eruption, on 16 July 2025, is estimated at 28.3 million cubic metres, with an uncertainty range of 27.5 to 29.1 million cubic metres.

As magma continues to accumulate and pressure within the system increases, the most likely scenario is that a magma intrusion will propagate from Svartsengi towards the Sundhnúkur crater row, potentially leading to an eruption. As before, only a short warning period should be expected. In previous events, the warning time has ranged from 20 minutes to just over four hours.

Model calculations indicate that the volume change beneath Svartsengi is between 27.5 and 29.1 million cubic metres. The estimate is based on GNSS measurements and InSAR data. The black lines show the 95% uncertainty interval.

Seismic activity

Seismic activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains low.

Hazard assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 30 September.

• Uplift beneath Svartsengi continues at a steady rate
• Continued slow magma accumulation, likely ending in a new dike intrusion and possibly an eruption remains the most likely scenario
• Hazard assessment unchanged, validity extended until 30 September

Ground deformation

Magma accumulation and ground uplift continue beneath Svartsengi. The average rate of magma accumulation over the past few weeks has remained steady.

The most likely scenario remains continued slow magma accumulation, eventually leading to a new dike intrusion and possibly a volcanic eruption.

Seismic Activity

Earthquake activity along the Sundhnúkur crater row and near Grindavík remains relatively low and is similar to previous weeks. No significant changes in seismic activity have been observed in recent weeks.

Hazard Assessment

The hazard assessment remains unchanged, and its validity has been extended until 30 September.

Previous updates on the activity at Svartsengi.