Updated 14. January at 15:05 UTC

Land uplift in the Svartsengi area continues at a similar rate to previous weeks. By the end of January or beginning of February, the likelihood of an eruption starts to increase, as model calculations indicate that approximately 12 million cubic meters of magma will have accumulated beneath Svartsengi by that time. The models are based on estimated magma inflow rates, but minor changes in inflow could impact the estimated timing of the next eruption.

In recent days, a gradual increase in seismic tremor has been recorded on the Grímsfjall seismometer, suggesting that a glacial outburst flood has begun from Grímsvötn. These floods emerge from the base of Skeiðarárjökull glacier, flowing into the Gígjukvísl river. Typically, these glacial outburst floods increase gradually, and it can take a few days for the first signs of floodwater to be detected at the hydrological station in Gígjukvísl river and an additional few days before peak discharge is reached. With precipitation in southeast Iceland in the past days, and more expected in the coming days, the identification of the initial signs of the flood In Gígjukvísl could prove to be challenging.

Updated 9. January 12:30 UTC

On Thursday, January 2nd, a tremor event was measured between 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM with its origin at Grjótárvatn. The tremor, lasting about 40 minutes, consisted of a series of continuous small earthquakes, most of which were too small to be located properly. Only two earthquakes within the tremor signal were located, they originated at a depth of approximately 15 km, with magnitudes of M1.5 and 1.8. A total of about 20 earthquakes were recorded that day, all at depths of 15–20 km and magnitudes ranging from M0.1–2.0.